Thursday, March 15, 2007

Wave of bullish articles

More news on how hot the RE market is. We'll track these so that we can see how long before the stories flip-flop...


Canadian homes pricier than ever
Units sold down slightly: report

Carrie Tait
Financial Post
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
CREDIT: (Photo: Reuters)
The average price jumps to a record high of $311,101 in February.
TORONTO -- Housing prices may be at a record high, but it isn’t stopping Canadians from buying new homes.
The average price of a home rang in at $311,101 in February, up 10% from last February's price of $282,744 and topping an all-time housing price high set in January, 2006, according to data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association on Wednesday.
A number of cities experienced new housing price highs including Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Hamilton-Burlington, London & St. Thomas, Ottawa, Quebec City and Saint John, according to measurements collected by the Multiple Listing Service and released by CREA.
Seasonally adjusted home sales in Canada’s major markets totaled 29,955 in February, down just 1% or 312 from 30,267 in January, 2007, when unit sales reached the highest level for any month. Toronto dragged down February’s sales results, but slowness in this market was offset by higher activity in Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary and Saskatoon, CREA said.
Seasonally adjusted new residential listing clocked in at 46,323 units last month, down 3.2% from Janurary. Vancouver and Toronto suffered the most. With less listings, the housing market became tighter than any point since September 2005. Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Calgary and Winnipeg have been pinched the most, CREA said.
Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, says the housing market will continue to be strong on the back of recent mortgage interest rate cuts, a healthy job market and rising incomes.
“With momentum for resale housing activity showing few signs of fatigue so far, the spring home buying season this year may be one for the record books,” he said.
ctait@nationalpost.com

Friday, March 9, 2007

Analysts shrug off housing starts plunge

Analysts shrug off housing starts plunge

Rakshande Italia
CanWest News Service
Friday, March 09, 2007
TORONTO -Canadian housing starts fell by a relatively steep 21 per cent in February, but analysts said the downturn should not be a cause for concern.
Housing starts dropped to 196,200 units last month from 248,500 units in January, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CHMC) said Thursday.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate compiled by CHMC, however, does not surprise housing experts. Analysts said that high employment figures, a booming economy in Western Canada and a lower loonie still show the economy is strong.
Below-seasonal temperatures were a contributing factor to the downturn, they added, noting that a return to more normal weather, coupled with low interest rates and innovative mortgage schemes now in the market, should support housing. Still, all agreed there is a slowdown in the market this year compared with last year.
"Given the fact that much of the adjustment is weather-related and due to a likely slowdown in job creation from extremely high levels, this correction is very much a giving back of borrowed activity," and does not point to a deepening downward trend," Bart Melek, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said.
Melek said that the unseasonably warm weather throughout much of January, and a very strong employment environment, boosted starts above sustainable levels that month. He added that areas such as Alberta and B.C. tended to do better then Central Canada, as the boom there obviously boosted jobs and housing.
Housing starts dropped in all regions last month, with double-digit declines in Ontario (32.8 per cent), the Prairies (25.4 per cent), Quebec (15.2 per cent) and B.C. (18.6 per cent).
Multiples also declined in all regions except in the Atlantic. Single starts were down everywhere except in British Columbia.
The numbers in rural and urban areas were down 5.2 per cent in the first two months of 2007 compared with the same period in 2006.
TD Bank Economist Pascal Gauthier said that regional disparities aside, there seems to be a soft landing in most major metro markets, especially in Ontario and Quebec.
"However, the Canadian housing market has been faring better than its U.S. counterpart largely because it has not been driven to the same extent by speculative investment or higher risk sub prime lending," he added.
Gauthier said Canada's hottest market, Alberta, is cooling, and the slowdown is proceeding in an orderly fashion.
Canada's new housing price index, released Thursday by Statistics Canada, shows that the year-over-year increase for Alberta edged down to 40.6 per cent in January, from 42 per cent in Dec. The year-over-year increase for the nation went down to 10.1 per cent in January, from 10.7 per cent in December 2006 .
Gauthier said the resale market continues to hold strong and constitutes the bulk of the market.
Financial Post
irakshande@nationalpost

Analysts shrug off housing starts plunge

Analysts shrug off housing starts plunge

Rakshande Italia
CanWest News Service
Friday, March 09, 2007
TORONTO -Canadian housing starts fell by a relatively steep 21 per cent in February, but analysts said the downturn should not be a cause for concern.
Housing starts dropped to 196,200 units last month from 248,500 units in January, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CHMC) said Thursday.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate compiled by CHMC, however, does not surprise housing experts. Analysts said that high employment figures, a booming economy in Western Canada and a lower loonie still show the economy is strong.
Below-seasonal temperatures were a contributing factor to the downturn, they added, noting that a return to more normal weather, coupled with low interest rates and innovative mortgage schemes now in the market, should support housing. Still, all agreed there is a slowdown in the market this year compared with last year.
"Given the fact that much of the adjustment is weather-related and due to a likely slowdown in job creation from extremely high levels, this correction is very much a giving back of borrowed activity," and does not point to a deepening downward trend," Bart Melek, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said.
Melek said that the unseasonably warm weather throughout much of January, and a very strong employment environment, boosted starts above sustainable levels that month. He added that areas such as Alberta and B.C. tended to do better then Central Canada, as the boom there obviously boosted jobs and housing.
Housing starts dropped in all regions last month, with double-digit declines in Ontario (32.8 per cent), the Prairies (25.4 per cent), Quebec (15.2 per cent) and B.C. (18.6 per cent).
Multiples also declined in all regions except in the Atlantic. Single starts were down everywhere except in British Columbia.
The numbers in rural and urban areas were down 5.2 per cent in the first two months of 2007 compared with the same period in 2006.
TD Bank Economist Pascal Gauthier said that regional disparities aside, there seems to be a soft landing in most major metro markets, especially in Ontario and Quebec.
"However, the Canadian housing market has been faring better than its U.S. counterpart largely because it has not been driven to the same extent by speculative investment or higher risk sub prime lending," he added.
Gauthier said Canada's hottest market, Alberta, is cooling, and the slowdown is proceeding in an orderly fashion.
Canada's new housing price index, released Thursday by Statistics Canada, shows that the year-over-year increase for Alberta edged down to 40.6 per cent in January, from 42 per cent in Dec. The year-over-year increase for the nation went down to 10.1 per cent in January, from 10.7 per cent in December 2006 .
Gauthier said the resale market continues to hold strong and constitutes the bulk of the market.
Financial Post
irakshande@nationalpost

Thursday, March 8, 2007

Canadian housing starts tumble

Canadian housing starts tumble
Falling 21%, missing estimates

Reuters
Thursday, March 08, 2007
CREDIT: Getty
The number of starts in February missed the consensus expectations of analysts who had called for 218,000 starts.TORONTO -- Canadian housing starts fell 21% in February to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 196,200 units from a revised 248,500 units in January, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said on Thursday.
The number of starts in February missed the consensus expectations of analysts who had called for 218,000 starts.
Urban multiple housing starts, which include condominium and apartments, fell 33% to an annual rate of 82,800 units from 123,500 in February, while urban single-family dwellings declined 12.6% to 80,400 units from 92,000.
Rural starts in February were estimated at an annual rate of 33,000 units, unchanged from January.

Local house prices continue meteoric climb

Local house prices continue meteoric climbOTTAWA (CP) — The western boom towns of Edmonton and Calgary drove new house prices to a 10.1 per cent gain in January over a year earlier, while month-to-month costs increased in 10 of 21 survey areas.Edmonton led the way, with new house prices rising 1.6 per cent over December, followed by Calgary (0.8), as costs for construction materials, in particular concrete, and labour for excavation and painting were contributing factors.The largest 12-month increase took place in Calgary, where new house prices rose 40.8 per cent over January 2006, followed closely by Edmonton at 40.2 per cent.Saskatoon, at 16.1 per cent, Regina (8.3), Winnipeg (7.8) and Vancouver (6.9) also had noteworthy year-over-year gains.Land prices rose in three of the 10 metropolitan areas registering monthly increases.Seven metropolitan areas registered no monthly change and, with a 0.4 per cent drop, Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay, Ont., showed the largest decrease due to competitive factors. Charlottetown, Ottawau Gatineau and Kitchener, Ont., were also down from the previous month.

Tuesday, March 6, 2007

February house prices defy forecast of slowdown

February house prices defy forecast of slowdown

Ron Chalmers
The Edmonton Journal
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
EDMONTON - Edmonton home prices still are soaring -- despite forecasts that they would slow in the new year.
Single-family homes sold at an average price of $375,412 in February, up 5.1 per cent from January -- which was up 4.5 per cent from December.
Carolyn Pratt, president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board, had expected prices to rise 15 per cent in the entire year. But with 10 months to go, "they're catching up very quickly to my 15 per cent," she said Monday.
"People are buying because they see the prices increase and they want to buy before there are further increases," Pratt said.
On the supply side, "we're getting listings, but as soon as they come in, they sell."
The number of new listings through the Multiple Listing Service was 2,224 in February -- up 21 per cent from February 2006.
Meanwhile, Com-Free, which helps people sell their own homes, reported listing 915 homes in the first two months of 2007 -- up 52 per cent from the first two months of 2006.
During February, MLS homes sold after an average of 27 days on the market, compared to 35 days in February 2006, and 45 days in February 2005.
Many potential sellers are ignoring today's excellent opportunity, Pratt said "A lot of people hold off because they feel that their home will show at its best in the spring and summer."
In other years, a seller might do best by waiting until the snow is gone and flowers are blooming.
"This year, it wouldn't matter," Pratt said.
"People could put their homes on the market any time and they would be well received." With the arrival of spring, however, "I think there should be more supply," she said.
Condominiums continue to gain market share. In the first two months of 2007, condos captured 27 per cent of sales compared to 21 per cent in the first two months of 2006.
"For most first-time buyers, condos are what they can afford," Pratt said.
Condo prices averaged $247,266 in February -- up from $146,933 a year earlier.
rchalmers@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2007

The Economy of Oil and Gas - Canada will stay top U.S. oil supplier for 20 years

Positive news for oil and gas - how effect do articles like this produce?

Canada will stay top U.S. oil supplier for 20 years

Ashok Dutta
CanWest News Service; Calgary Herald
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
CALGARY -Canada - which in 2005 replaced Saudi Arabia as the single-largest supplier of energy to the U.S. - will continue that position over at least the next two decades, thanks to the multi-billion dollar oilsands developments in Alberta.
"The projects in Fort McMurray and Athabasca will ensure that Canada remains in the top spot until 2030," Guy Caruso, administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said Monday on the sidelines of an industry conference in Calgary.
According to EIA estimates, Canadian exports to the U.S. will reach 2.6 million barrels per day by 2030, compared with current levels of just over one million bpd.
"Oilsands will account for a vast majority of this incremental exports. The remaining volumes will be sourced from the conventional oil sources in Canada," he said.
Since 9/11, the U.S. has been pursuing a policy of reducing reliance on Middle East oil. Until recently, Saudi Aramco was the single-largest supplier of crude oil to the U.S. under a long-term deal offering a favourable lifting and delivery price. That scenario has changed, however.
In an address to the U.S. Congress late last year, President George W. Bush spoke of the need to decrease 75 per cent dependence on Middle East oil due to volatility in the region.
"We will see a growth in supply from not only Western Canada, but also the Middle East. However, the increased demand will be spread over several Arabian Gulf suppliers and not be solely reliant on Saudi Arabia. A majority of Saudi oil is destined for the Asian markets, particularly China and India," Caruso said.
The U.S. is the world's largest consumer of crude oil, estimated to be 22 million bpd. According to the EIA, demand is projected to grow 30 per cent over the next 25 years with fossil fuels catering to a bulk of the new energy requirements.
Caruso revised upwards EIA's forecasts for crude oil prices for 2007 to $50-55 per barrel, compared with $30-35 earlier.
"The main reasons are high investments, particularly in the Middle East, a growing restriction on upstream access to international oil companies to new reserves and rising cost of project development and implementation. In the past five years, capital costs have risen 50 to 60 per cent and this is continuing to soar," he said.
Saudi Arabia, with proven reserves of 267 billion barrels of crude oil, is pursuing mega projects of bringing onstream the Manifa, Shaybah, Khurais and Nuayyim projects by 2010 in the Eastern Province. A staggering $45 billion is being invested to produce about two million bpd new production capacity. By comparison, some $150 billion is earmarked for investment by 2015 in Alberta's 175-billion barrel oilsands to increase output by about 1.5 million bpd.
While U.S. imports of crude oil from Western Canada is set to rise sharply, a different picture emerges for natural gas.
"U.S. consumption of gas by 2030 will increase to 26 trillion cubic feet from current levels of 22 tcf. However, Canadian supplies will go down to 1.2 tcf compared with 3.3 tcf," Caruso said at the CERI 2007 Natural gas Conference.
Prime reasons are low gas prices, which has made drilling and upstream development unattractive, and also the growing need to meet demand emanating from the oilsands projects.
"In the medium-term, we are looking at the Alaskan gas project which we expect to start deliveries in 2018. Gas from the McKenzie Delta will also be very vital," Caruso said.
adutta@theherald.canwest.com
Calgary Herald

Monday, March 5, 2007

Cool weather fails to slow housing market

Cool weather fails to slow housing market
Edmonton, March 5, 2007: Cool weather and heavy snowfalls in February did not prevent home buyers from investing in real estate. Residential sales in the Edmonton area were up 17.5 percent with 1,886 sales as compared to 1,605 in February 2006.
“February was particularly strong,” said Carolyn Pratt, president of the EREB. “Prices continue to climb and there are no indications that the local housing market will cool off in the near future.” The average price for all residential properties combined was $321,307 Last February the average price was $211,531.
The average price* of a single family dwelling rose to $375,412 which is up 5.1% from January. Condominium prices also rose 6.0% from last month to $247,266;. Duplex and rowhouse prices went up by 8.6% for a month end price of $319,513.
Inventory continues to be a concern for REALTORS® and their clients. There were just 2,120 residential listings on the Multiple Listing Service® at the end of February. That compares to 2,595 listings at the same time last year. “New listings come onto the market everyday,” said Pratt. “It is important for a buyer to keep in constant touch with their REALTOR® and be able to move quickly when a desirable property becomes available.”
The average days on market was 27 down from 33 days in January. Total value of residential transactions through the MLS® in February was $606 million. Total sales of all types of property was $695 million for the month. This is an increase of 76% from February 2006.
February 2007 activity
Record for the month*
% change from February 2006
Total MLS® sales this month
2,094*
16.7%
Value of total MLS® sales - month
$696 million*
76.3%
Value of total MLS® sales - year
$1.256 billion*
88.9%
Residential¹ sales this month
1,886*
17.5%
Residential average price
$321,307*
51.9%
SFD² average selling price - month
$375,412*
50.2%
SFD² median³ selling price
361300
51.8%
Condo average selling price
$247,266*
68.3%
¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses. ². Single Family Dwelling ³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices

More on Condo Conversions

With more condo coversions entering the market, it is much more difficult to determine supply.

Here is a article from Edmonton:


Mondo Condo While Edmonton's population booms, 1,000 apartments a year are lost to condominium conversions Duncan Thorne
The Edmonton Journal Sunday, March 04, 2007
CREDIT: Rick Macwilliam, The Journal, File

In new construction, developers overwhelmingly favour condo projects, like this tower on 104th Street north of Jasper Avenue, over apartments.

EDMONTON - Barbara Hagensen remembers scrambling to find an apartment when she arrived in Edmonton during the boom of the early 1980s. More than 25 years later, the city and province are booming again. But her 1981 search was a cakewalk compared to the task she may now face -- finding a new, affordable apartment in a city that has fewer places to rent now than it did 20 years ago. According to statistics gathered by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), there were about 79,600 rental units in the region in 1987. Last year, there were 5,050 fewer, a drop of 6.3 per cent. Most of the original units were turned into condos. The company that owns Hagensen's current apartment, one of 504 units in Strathearn Heights Apartments, just outside downtown, has given notice it plans to tear the complex down and put up condos. "I am really concerned about my neighbours who are on fixed income," Hagensen says. The problem is unlikely to get better any time soon. "Throughout most of the past 20 years the (rental) universe has been declining because of condo conversions," says Richard Goatcher, senior market analyst at CMHC. "What we've seen is that around 1,000 units a year have been leaving the universe to become condominium properties over the last couple of years." Between 1987 and 2006, the region's population soared by almost 233,000, or 29 per cent, to more than a million people. That obviously boosts demand for rentals. There is a little apartment construction to make up for those lost to conversion. Last year, for instance, work began on about 270 units. Overwhelmingly, developers concentrate on building condos. They built more than 5,600 units in 2006. "Our rental inventory has just gone downhill," says Clarence Rusnell, past president of the Edmonton Apartment Association. The city has earmarked $25 million over five years, under its Cornerstones program, to help developers provide 2,500 affordable units. That's 500 units a year -- not enough to make up for conversions to condos, officials say. Coun. Michael Phair, who handles council's housing responsibilities, says the city can do nothing to stem the conversion flood. Provincial law entitles building owners to convert. The city provided incentives for new housing downtown in the late 1990s so more people would live there. Phair says he and others on council expected most of the units would be rentals. "What has happened to many apartment buildings in the downtown is they've become condos, or they were built as condos," Phair says. Across the city, apartment towers and townhouses were the first rental units to be converted to condos. These days, the owners of humbler walk-ups are dressing up their apartments for the condo market. Near Old Strathcona, apartments that have long been popular with university students are for sale. Typical of the trend in the area, a one-bedroom basement suite was recently for sale at $169,900. The owner of a "cosy" one-bedroom within walking distance of Old Strathcona has been asking $177,900. An up-market, one-bedroom in Garneau has been available for $485,900. City-wide, the Edmonton Real Estate Board reports that the average condo price in January was $233,175, up 74 per cent in 12 months. At CMHC, Goatcher says the rental supply is shrinking even though some condo buyers are investors who then rent their suites. The agency is getting reports of some condo owners boosting rents by up to 50 per cent, to cover the soaring cost of buying the units, he says. "The cost of a 1,000-square-foot, new, two-bedroom condominium concrete highrise is rapidly moving towards $500,000 in this city," Goatcher says. "That's Vancouver prices." CMHC started the year by predicting rent increases of 10 to 15 per cent. Goatcher says January increases have prompted it to raise the forecast for the year to 20 per cent. Monthly rents averaged $727 last year, according to CMHC. The average for a two-bedroom was $808. Jim Gurnett, executive director of the Edmonton Mennonite Centre for Newcomers, says few apartments in that price range are available to would-be renters. "If you don't have $1,000 a month to spend on rent, there's really nothing in this town. Our staff cannot find places for people to live." Even $1,000 a month is too low to encourage apartment construction, the apartment association's Rusnell says. Costs are such that a developer would have to charge about $1,700 a month to build an apartment of the quality renting for less than $900, he says. David Kent, president of Nearctic, the developer of the condo plan for Strath-earn Heights, where Hagensen lives, contends council triggered the condo conversion phenomenon in the 1980s. It set property taxes significantly higher on apartments than on individually owned units. Many apartment landlords changed to a condo ownership structure back then, although they did not sell the units immediately, Kent says. Rev. Christopher New, pastor of the Edmonton Moravian Church in Old Strathcona, says developers and tenants often have a different sense of affordability. New, who is also a leader of the Greater Edmonton Alliance, offers a glimmer of hope that there's a way of reaching an acceptable compromise. The church-based GEA works to get both sides talking. In his experience, developers are open to changing plans in ways that work for tenants. Talking worked at Ascott Garden, an apartment complex in north-side Athlone that is to be replaced by condos. GEA's intervention led to the developer, Lambridge Capital Partners, linking up with Capital Region Housing to provide a home-ownership program for low-income tenants. New hopes GEA can help tenants and Nearctic resolve concerns at the Strathearn project. The signs are promising. Nearctic president Kent says the project will happen in phases over five to eight years, a period in which most tenants would normally leave. He promises that when existing apartments are torn down he will move longer-term tenants, such as Hagensen, at company expense into apartments other tenants vacate. Eventually they'll have first dibs on 88 affordable places among the project's proposed 1,750 units, Kent says. "We're hoping that some of those affordable-housing units are rental units."