Recently both the Vancouver Housing Blog and Calgary Contrarian have announced a pause in service.
Having recently started this blog, it definitely is no where near the popularity of the other housing blogs, but we do get our share of visitors.
So should I be expecting Guido to be knocking on my door to stop this blog? Or maybe I should be expecting a cheque from some bank or real estate agency soon...
All kidding aside, special thanks to VHB and Rob, I have always enjoyed their blogs and view on the market.
In the mean time, I'm sure there will be others continuing their legacy giving us a local perspective in Calgary (Vancouver has several good blogs, links in the VHB). Also, check out http://albertabubble.blogspot.com/
Sunday, February 25, 2007
CMHC Mortgage Consumer Survey
We've seen a lot of theory as to what is causing the collapse of the US Housing Market. Many suggest that it is the re-financing of their homes through HELOCs, the ARMs, and the sub-prime lending practices that have created the mess.
So how do Canadian's treat mortgages? According the the CMHC,
"This study suggests that Canadians are fundamentally cautious when it comes to their mortgage debt," said Pierre Serré, Vice-President, Insurance Product and Business Development. "This is particularly true among young first-time homebuyers."
Take a look at the CMHC Mortgage survey and let's see if there are some similiar patterns...
http://cmhc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2007/upload/Consumers-Cautious-About-Mortgage-Debt-Backgrounder.pdf
So how do Canadian's treat mortgages? According the the CMHC,
"This study suggests that Canadians are fundamentally cautious when it comes to their mortgage debt," said Pierre Serré, Vice-President, Insurance Product and Business Development. "This is particularly true among young first-time homebuyers."
Take a look at the CMHC Mortgage survey and let's see if there are some similiar patterns...
http://cmhc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2007/upload/Consumers-Cautious-About-Mortgage-Debt-Backgrounder.pdf
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Edmonton has earned the dubious reputation as Canada's Murder City
With 36 murders last year and a record 39 killings in 2005, Edmonton has earned the dubious reputation as Canada's Murder City.
Here are some quites from an article in from the Edmonton Journal:
"The biggest threat to this city's future prosperity may well be the crazy, mindless violence -- usually involving young men -- that's rapidly tarnishing Edmonton's reputation as a safe place to live, work and play."
Here are some quites from an article in from the Edmonton Journal:
"The biggest threat to this city's future prosperity may well be the crazy, mindless violence -- usually involving young men -- that's rapidly tarnishing Edmonton's reputation as a safe place to live, work and play."
Monday, February 12, 2007
Condo Conversions: Renters priced out of homes
I noticed a lot more condo conversions happening in Edmonton as evident on MLS. I've seen at least 4-5 mostly in the downtown area. Theses are older mid-rise building converted to "Luxury" condos. I wasn't surprised to see this article in the Calgary Herald:
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=cf1b7017-7087-4ffb-8fb3-2837d62c7b91&k=43552
As prices inflate in Edmonton, we are going to see more and more apartments being converted to condos. Based on the story, landlords must give 6 Months to evict tenants. Based on this, when do we expect this to hit the Edmonton market the way it has in Calgary? How will the government manage affordable housing assuming most of these conversions will affect the affordable housing market?
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=cf1b7017-7087-4ffb-8fb3-2837d62c7b91&k=43552
As prices inflate in Edmonton, we are going to see more and more apartments being converted to condos. Based on the story, landlords must give 6 Months to evict tenants. Based on this, when do we expect this to hit the Edmonton market the way it has in Calgary? How will the government manage affordable housing assuming most of these conversions will affect the affordable housing market?
Friday, February 9, 2007
Edmonton starts reporting versus Calgary
Edmonton's Home starts were up due to multiple starts. Calgary however was down significantly. Let's compare the articles from the Edmonton Journal versus the Calgary Herald.
Edmonton:
http://tinyurl.com/36vpx7
Calgary:
http://tinyurl.com/2ngac9
Both reports point to weather playing a key role in why detached starts are down. In Edmonton, it was an exceptionally warm January in 2006, hence higher starts. In Calgary, they attributed January 2006 on rain.
Based on Febuary forecast to be colder, what should we expect from Febuary starts?
Edmonton:
http://tinyurl.com/36vpx7
Calgary:
http://tinyurl.com/2ngac9
Both reports point to weather playing a key role in why detached starts are down. In Edmonton, it was an exceptionally warm January in 2006, hence higher starts. In Calgary, they attributed January 2006 on rain.
Based on Febuary forecast to be colder, what should we expect from Febuary starts?
Thursday, February 8, 2007
Edmonton Home Prices Surpass Toronto
Based on this report:
http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/amcharts/feb0807.pdf
Edmonton has surpassed Toronto in average home re-sale values. The report also suggests that the Market will continue in this pace.
What are you thoughts...
http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/amcharts/feb0807.pdf
Edmonton has surpassed Toronto in average home re-sale values. The report also suggests that the Market will continue in this pace.
What are you thoughts...
New house prices level off in December
New house prices level off in December
Reuters
Thursday, February 08, 2007
CREDIT: Getty
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said housing starts had risen in January to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 249,300 units from an upwardly revised 212,600 units in December.
OTTAWA -- Average prices of new houses in Canada did not show a monthly increase in December for the first time since June 2000 as superheated markets in western Canada showed signs of cooling down.
Statistics Canada said on Thursday December's new home prices were up 10.7 percent from a year earlier, but unchanged from November.
Tellingly, new housing prices in Calgary, though still up 42.4 percent from a year earlier because of an oil boom, showed a rare month-on-month decline, falling 0.5 percent. New home prices in Edmonton rose by a modest 0.2 percent from November and Vancouver's prices were unchanged.
The Bank of Canada pays close attention to housing prices in setting interest rates, describing fast rising house prices as a key upside risk to its inflation outlook.
Separately, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said housing starts had risen in January to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 249,300 units from an upwardly revised 212,600 units in December.
Urban starts were am adjusted, annualized 216,300 units in January, up 19.2 percent from December. Urban multiples surged 31.4 percent to 124,300 units in January, while singles jumped 5.9 percent to 92,000 units.
Rural starts in January were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 33,000 units.
© Reuters 2007
Reuters
Thursday, February 08, 2007
CREDIT: Getty
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said housing starts had risen in January to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 249,300 units from an upwardly revised 212,600 units in December.
OTTAWA -- Average prices of new houses in Canada did not show a monthly increase in December for the first time since June 2000 as superheated markets in western Canada showed signs of cooling down.
Statistics Canada said on Thursday December's new home prices were up 10.7 percent from a year earlier, but unchanged from November.
Tellingly, new housing prices in Calgary, though still up 42.4 percent from a year earlier because of an oil boom, showed a rare month-on-month decline, falling 0.5 percent. New home prices in Edmonton rose by a modest 0.2 percent from November and Vancouver's prices were unchanged.
The Bank of Canada pays close attention to housing prices in setting interest rates, describing fast rising house prices as a key upside risk to its inflation outlook.
Separately, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said housing starts had risen in January to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 249,300 units from an upwardly revised 212,600 units in December.
Urban starts were am adjusted, annualized 216,300 units in January, up 19.2 percent from December. Urban multiples surged 31.4 percent to 124,300 units in January, while singles jumped 5.9 percent to 92,000 units.
Rural starts in January were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 33,000 units.
© Reuters 2007
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
Some bearish and interesting articles to share...
Builder faces lawsuits over long-simmering dispute
Condominium owners complained for years about unfinished work
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2ljkes
Oilsands bears early
Petro-Canada said it evaluated bids for its stakes in five in-situ oilsands properties and decided they weren't high enough, so it cancelled the sale.
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2sx5ar
Data shows building has peaked
StatsCan report says December retreat ends record year nationwide
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2m8gk4
Condominium owners complained for years about unfinished work
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2ljkes
Oilsands bears early
Petro-Canada said it evaluated bids for its stakes in five in-situ oilsands properties and decided they weren't high enough, so it cancelled the sale.
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2sx5ar
Data shows building has peaked
StatsCan report says December retreat ends record year nationwide
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2m8gk4
Tuesday, February 6, 2007
Alberta's long-term prosperity in jeopardy, study says
Alberta's long-term prosperity in jeopardy, study says
Geoffrey Scotton
Calgary Herald
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Alberta’s overwhelming historical reliance on energy for economic growth, along with expectations government non-renewable resource royalties will decline substantially by 2013, means Alberta is at crossroads that will require longer-term planning to manage the risks, says a new study.The study by University of Calgary energy economist Robert Mansell concludes that strong actions will be required to deal with problems that could derail sustained long-term prosperity, particularly labour shortages, rising costs, water scarcity, greenhouse gas emissions and others.“Without a strong and sustained commitment to meet these challenges, Alberta’s prospects will dim,” said Mansell, the managing director of the U of C’s Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy.Mansell co-wrote the paper with another U of C economist, Ron Schlenker.Mansell and Schlenker warn that there is no other sector in the Alberta economy that could replace the energy sector as the key driver of the province’s prosperity. Between 1974 and 2004, the study found, oil and gas provided more than $1.5 trillion in provincial output, or an average of $45 billion per year.That contribution included $280 million in government revenue, or $8.1 billion a year; $600 billion in labour income, or $18 billion a year, and 12 million person-years of employment, or an annual average of 375,000 person years.gscotton@theherald.canwest.com
Geoffrey Scotton
Calgary Herald
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Alberta’s overwhelming historical reliance on energy for economic growth, along with expectations government non-renewable resource royalties will decline substantially by 2013, means Alberta is at crossroads that will require longer-term planning to manage the risks, says a new study.The study by University of Calgary energy economist Robert Mansell concludes that strong actions will be required to deal with problems that could derail sustained long-term prosperity, particularly labour shortages, rising costs, water scarcity, greenhouse gas emissions and others.“Without a strong and sustained commitment to meet these challenges, Alberta’s prospects will dim,” said Mansell, the managing director of the U of C’s Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy.Mansell co-wrote the paper with another U of C economist, Ron Schlenker.Mansell and Schlenker warn that there is no other sector in the Alberta economy that could replace the energy sector as the key driver of the province’s prosperity. Between 1974 and 2004, the study found, oil and gas provided more than $1.5 trillion in provincial output, or an average of $45 billion per year.That contribution included $280 million in government revenue, or $8.1 billion a year; $600 billion in labour income, or $18 billion a year, and 12 million person-years of employment, or an annual average of 375,000 person years.gscotton@theherald.canwest.com
High prices may depress house demand
High prices may depress house demand
But more workers arriving in Alberta will keep cost of homes climbing, says CMHC
David Finlayson
The Edmonton Journal; with files from Canadian Press
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
EDMONTON - The vibrant job market will continue to attract workers to Edmonton, but the "dark cloud" of escalating prices will temper housing demand over the next two years, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday.
New home starts are expected to decline from 14,970 last year to 13,500 by 2008, and resales will finally pull back this year after six successive records, the agency said.
They will drop from 74,000 last year to 69,500 by 2008, while the average price will rise 13 per cent this year and seven per cent next year after an astronomical 29-per-cent jump in 2006.
"Though the majority of economic indicators point to persistent strength in Alberta's housing markets, strong price gains in the new and resale sectors remain a dark cloud on the horizon," CMHC said.
The outlook is for robust economic growth through 2008, but high housing costs and other provinces' efforts to retain workers will push the record net in-migration of 86,000 last year down to 60,000 by 2008, the report added.
Low vacancy rates and strong demand by people priced out of the single-family home market will keep Edmonton rents rising this year, with the average rent for all units hitting $841 a month by October.
Most multi-family housing starts last year were condominium units, further pressuring the apartment market, CMHC said.
According to Edmonton Real Estate Board figures released Monday, the average single-family home price in Edmonton was $357,325 in January, up 4.5 per cent from December and 51.9 per cent higher than January last year.
Condominium prices rose a more moderate 2.5 per cent to $233,175, but were still 74.3 per cent higher than 2006, while duplex and rowhouse prices actually went down $1,030 last month. "Sales are typically sluggish at the beginning of the year, but realtors have been kept busy in January with increased sales and higher average prices," EREB president Carolyn Pratt said.
January residential sales jumped 45 per cent from December and were up 32 per cent over January 2006. There were 1,554 residential sales last month with 2,043 listings.
The total value of MLS residential sales was $472 million, double the same month last year, with homes spending an average 33 days on the market compared with 30 days in December. Strong commercial and rural sales drove total board sales up 107 per cent over the same month last year.
Economists are divided on whether the house price bubble is ready to burst."Some people do think that those price gains are going to be unwound fairly quickly in the spring time," said Gregor Bush, an economist with the Bank of Montreal.
Others say the global glut in savings and liquidity will keep long-term interest rates low and act as a cushion for the housing market.
"We're seeing a slow deceleration in housing activity, but still with activity at fairly high levels, and we expect that to continue through 2007 as starts come off their very robust pace of 2005 and 2006," Bush said.
"That's still very high by historical standards."
dfinlayson@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2007
But more workers arriving in Alberta will keep cost of homes climbing, says CMHC
David Finlayson
The Edmonton Journal; with files from Canadian Press
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
EDMONTON - The vibrant job market will continue to attract workers to Edmonton, but the "dark cloud" of escalating prices will temper housing demand over the next two years, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday.
New home starts are expected to decline from 14,970 last year to 13,500 by 2008, and resales will finally pull back this year after six successive records, the agency said.
They will drop from 74,000 last year to 69,500 by 2008, while the average price will rise 13 per cent this year and seven per cent next year after an astronomical 29-per-cent jump in 2006.
"Though the majority of economic indicators point to persistent strength in Alberta's housing markets, strong price gains in the new and resale sectors remain a dark cloud on the horizon," CMHC said.
The outlook is for robust economic growth through 2008, but high housing costs and other provinces' efforts to retain workers will push the record net in-migration of 86,000 last year down to 60,000 by 2008, the report added.
Low vacancy rates and strong demand by people priced out of the single-family home market will keep Edmonton rents rising this year, with the average rent for all units hitting $841 a month by October.
Most multi-family housing starts last year were condominium units, further pressuring the apartment market, CMHC said.
According to Edmonton Real Estate Board figures released Monday, the average single-family home price in Edmonton was $357,325 in January, up 4.5 per cent from December and 51.9 per cent higher than January last year.
Condominium prices rose a more moderate 2.5 per cent to $233,175, but were still 74.3 per cent higher than 2006, while duplex and rowhouse prices actually went down $1,030 last month. "Sales are typically sluggish at the beginning of the year, but realtors have been kept busy in January with increased sales and higher average prices," EREB president Carolyn Pratt said.
January residential sales jumped 45 per cent from December and were up 32 per cent over January 2006. There were 1,554 residential sales last month with 2,043 listings.
The total value of MLS residential sales was $472 million, double the same month last year, with homes spending an average 33 days on the market compared with 30 days in December. Strong commercial and rural sales drove total board sales up 107 per cent over the same month last year.
Economists are divided on whether the house price bubble is ready to burst."Some people do think that those price gains are going to be unwound fairly quickly in the spring time," said Gregor Bush, an economist with the Bank of Montreal.
Others say the global glut in savings and liquidity will keep long-term interest rates low and act as a cushion for the housing market.
"We're seeing a slow deceleration in housing activity, but still with activity at fairly high levels, and we expect that to continue through 2007 as starts come off their very robust pace of 2005 and 2006," Bush said.
"That's still very high by historical standards."
dfinlayson@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2007
Thursday, February 1, 2007
Edmonton Condo Market according to Genworth
The Conference Board of Canada and Genworth Financial Canada offers an in-depth analysis of the condominium market for Canada’s six largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs).
"Edmonton’s condominium market has skyrocketed in recent years,
but no drastic correction is anticipated over the 2007 to 2011 period.
Demand is expected to ease from the dizzying heights reached in the
first half of 2006, but it will still remain strong, especially when compared
with historical standards."
You can see the entire report here:
http://www.genworth.ca/mi/eng/downloads/Metro_Condo_Outlook_Winter07.pdf
The report suggests that other than the usual "hot economy", age demographics will play as a huge impact to the growth.
"Demand for condominiums in Edmonton is expected to remain strong over the medium term, not only because of healthy population growth but also because of shifts in the age structure of the population. Edmonton’s population is forecast to increase by an annual average rate of 1.5 per cent from 2007 to 2011. At the same time, the city’s population is aging, the result of the dominance of the baby-boomer cohort. In fact, the share of the 55–74 age cohort is projected to rise from 12 per cent of the population in 1987 to 18 per cent in 2011. As baby boomers enter their retirement years, they are expected to turn to condominiums to take advantage of maintenance-free living and enhanced security, as well as to be closer to amenities."
Anyone seeing this trend?
"Edmonton’s condominium market has skyrocketed in recent years,
but no drastic correction is anticipated over the 2007 to 2011 period.
Demand is expected to ease from the dizzying heights reached in the
first half of 2006, but it will still remain strong, especially when compared
with historical standards."
You can see the entire report here:
http://www.genworth.ca/mi/eng/downloads/Metro_Condo_Outlook_Winter07.pdf
The report suggests that other than the usual "hot economy", age demographics will play as a huge impact to the growth.
"Demand for condominiums in Edmonton is expected to remain strong over the medium term, not only because of healthy population growth but also because of shifts in the age structure of the population. Edmonton’s population is forecast to increase by an annual average rate of 1.5 per cent from 2007 to 2011. At the same time, the city’s population is aging, the result of the dominance of the baby-boomer cohort. In fact, the share of the 55–74 age cohort is projected to rise from 12 per cent of the population in 1987 to 18 per cent in 2011. As baby boomers enter their retirement years, they are expected to turn to condominiums to take advantage of maintenance-free living and enhanced security, as well as to be closer to amenities."
Anyone seeing this trend?
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