Housing Market Regains Balance from Spike in Listings
Further Evidence that Housing Market is Achieving Balance.
Edmonton July 5, 2007: Further evidence of the rebalancing of the Edmonton housing market was released by the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton this afternoon. Unlike many sales in the past year and a half, most homes sellers who sold their single family home in June accepted a lower price than they were asking for to complete the transaction.
There were 801 single family homes sold in the City of Edmonton through the Multiple Listing Service® in June 2007.
76.4% or 612 homes were sold for less than their list price
11.2% or 90 homes were sold for the exact price expected by the seller
12.3% or 99 homes were sold for more than the list price
The average sale price for homes sold below list were discounted by about $12,500.
Homes sold above list gained an average of $8,760 for the seller. By comparison, in July 2006, just 66% of homes sold under the list price and 23.6% of homes sold were sold for more than the asking price. In September 2006, 65.8% of single family homes sold below the list price and 19% of homes sold for more than the list price.
Friday, July 13, 2007
Thursday, June 14, 2007
May Market Stats from Edmonton Real Estate Board
Single Month Residential Sales of Over $1 Billion Sets New Benchmark
Edmonton, June 4, 2007: Pessimistic market watchers are peering into the future for any sign of a market slowdown in Edmonton. According to the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton the market remains buoyant with a billion dollars worth of residential sales in May.
The total year-to-date value of property sales through the Edmonton Multiple Listing Service® at the end of May has already surpassed the 2005 year end total.
Year-to-date residential unit sales are up.
Average prices for all types of housing are up.
Average days-on-market is still low.
“Home sellers are upbeat about the steadily increasing prices and short selling cycles,” said Carolyn Pratt, President of the REALTORS® Association. “Homebuyers, on the other hand, are pleased that the inventory has increased and their range of housing choices has improved.” There were 4,485 residential properties available on the MLS® at the end of May as compared to 3,151 last month: a 42% increase.
The average price* of a single family home rose 3% (to $426,028) in May but sales dropped 2.3% from the same month last year as buyers choose condos over single family homes. Condominium prices rose 1.9% to $266,100 on average with 993 sales in May. Duplex and rowhouse sales were 111 units for an average price of $347,257 (up 1.8%).
Single family sales represent 59% of residential sales with condos making up 36%. In 2005 SFDs had 70% of the sales and condos were just 26.8%. Duplex/rowhouse sales are now 4% up from 2.9% in May 2005.
“Rising prices are forcing buyers to explore their housing options. People are being priced into the condo market," said Pratt. "May figures demonstrate that the trend has not yet abated." She urged both buyers and sellers to consult a REALTOR® before venturing into the market. “With the average price of a single family dwelling rising by over $400 a day, you need the latest market figures that only a REALTOR® can provide.”
There were 4,850 residential properties listed on the MLS® in May with 2,839 sales. The sales-to-listing ratio was 59%. Average days on market remained the same as last month at 22 days.
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* Average prices indicate market trends only. They do not reflect actual prices, which vary from house to house and area to area. For information on a specific area, contact your local REALTOR®.
The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton (Edmonton Real Estate Board), founded in 1927, is a professional association of 3,185 Brokers and Associates in the greater Edmonton area. The Board administers the Multiple Listing Service®, provides professional education to its members and enforces a strict Code of Ethics and Standards of Business Practice. The EREB also advertises property listings and publishes consumer information on the Internet at mls.ca and ereb.com, as well as in the Real Estate Weekly and on their web site. The EREB supports charities involving shelter and homeless through the Edmonton Realtors’ Charitable Foundation (ERCF).
Highlights of MLS® activity May 2007 Activity Record for the Month % change from
May 2006
Total MLS® sales this month 3,223 7.36%
Value of total MLS® sales – month $1.169 Billion* 54.2%
Value of total MLS® sales – year $4.29 Billion* 73.4%
Residential¹ sales this month 2,839 10.7%
Residential average price $354,410 45.9%
SFD² average selling price – month $426,028 50.9%
SFD median³ selling price $400,000 48.1%
Condo average selling price $266,100 54.2%
¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses.
². Single Family Dwelling
³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices
Edmonton, June 4, 2007: Pessimistic market watchers are peering into the future for any sign of a market slowdown in Edmonton. According to the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton the market remains buoyant with a billion dollars worth of residential sales in May.
The total year-to-date value of property sales through the Edmonton Multiple Listing Service® at the end of May has already surpassed the 2005 year end total.
Year-to-date residential unit sales are up.
Average prices for all types of housing are up.
Average days-on-market is still low.
“Home sellers are upbeat about the steadily increasing prices and short selling cycles,” said Carolyn Pratt, President of the REALTORS® Association. “Homebuyers, on the other hand, are pleased that the inventory has increased and their range of housing choices has improved.” There were 4,485 residential properties available on the MLS® at the end of May as compared to 3,151 last month: a 42% increase.
The average price* of a single family home rose 3% (to $426,028) in May but sales dropped 2.3% from the same month last year as buyers choose condos over single family homes. Condominium prices rose 1.9% to $266,100 on average with 993 sales in May. Duplex and rowhouse sales were 111 units for an average price of $347,257 (up 1.8%).
Single family sales represent 59% of residential sales with condos making up 36%. In 2005 SFDs had 70% of the sales and condos were just 26.8%. Duplex/rowhouse sales are now 4% up from 2.9% in May 2005.
“Rising prices are forcing buyers to explore their housing options. People are being priced into the condo market," said Pratt. "May figures demonstrate that the trend has not yet abated." She urged both buyers and sellers to consult a REALTOR® before venturing into the market. “With the average price of a single family dwelling rising by over $400 a day, you need the latest market figures that only a REALTOR® can provide.”
There were 4,850 residential properties listed on the MLS® in May with 2,839 sales. The sales-to-listing ratio was 59%. Average days on market remained the same as last month at 22 days.
-30-
* Average prices indicate market trends only. They do not reflect actual prices, which vary from house to house and area to area. For information on a specific area, contact your local REALTOR®.
The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton (Edmonton Real Estate Board), founded in 1927, is a professional association of 3,185 Brokers and Associates in the greater Edmonton area. The Board administers the Multiple Listing Service®, provides professional education to its members and enforces a strict Code of Ethics and Standards of Business Practice. The EREB also advertises property listings and publishes consumer information on the Internet at mls.ca and ereb.com, as well as in the Real Estate Weekly and on their web site. The EREB supports charities involving shelter and homeless through the Edmonton Realtors’ Charitable Foundation (ERCF).
Highlights of MLS® activity May 2007 Activity Record for the Month % change from
May 2006
Total MLS® sales this month 3,223 7.36%
Value of total MLS® sales – month $1.169 Billion* 54.2%
Value of total MLS® sales – year $4.29 Billion* 73.4%
Residential¹ sales this month 2,839 10.7%
Residential average price $354,410 45.9%
SFD² average selling price – month $426,028 50.9%
SFD median³ selling price $400,000 48.1%
Condo average selling price $266,100 54.2%
¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses.
². Single Family Dwelling
³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices
Thursday, May 17, 2007
CONDOS TO REMAIN AN ATTRACTIVE OPTION FOR MANY HOME BUYERS
May 17, 2007
Canada’s condo markets have delivered a strong performance in recent years, and the economic and financial outlook suggests a continued robust performance in 2007 and 2008. Like all real estate, the sales and price experience for condos will be heavily influenced by location. Since 2004, housing markets in central and eastern Canada have generally experienced a soft-landing, with activity moderating, but remaining at high levels, and with prices continuing to rise at a solid pace. The outlook is for more of the same over the next 24 months. In contrast, new and resale housing in the west has been on fire, but soaring prices have eroded affordability in many markets. In 2007/08, housing conditions are likely to cool in the west, but this need not lead to a boom-bust cycle if price growth slows as new supply comes on the market, demand eases and speculation becomes gradually less intense. So while the risks warrant close monitoring, the TD Economics base case projection is for a moderation in western housing activity, but with the price gains, home construction and resale activity all remaining at well above their historical averages. The regional condo markets are likely to be caught up and parallel these broad regional real estate trends, with the result that condo prices are expected to continue to post double digit gains in the west, but slower than that experienced in 2005/06, while prices in the rest of the country advance at a mid-single digit rate. Looking beyond the near-term outlook, there is fundamental support for condos in the major Canadian markets from structural economic trends, including the aging population and the continued urbanization of the country.
More here:
http://www.td.com/economics/special/ca0507_condo.pdf
Canada’s condo markets have delivered a strong performance in recent years, and the economic and financial outlook suggests a continued robust performance in 2007 and 2008. Like all real estate, the sales and price experience for condos will be heavily influenced by location. Since 2004, housing markets in central and eastern Canada have generally experienced a soft-landing, with activity moderating, but remaining at high levels, and with prices continuing to rise at a solid pace. The outlook is for more of the same over the next 24 months. In contrast, new and resale housing in the west has been on fire, but soaring prices have eroded affordability in many markets. In 2007/08, housing conditions are likely to cool in the west, but this need not lead to a boom-bust cycle if price growth slows as new supply comes on the market, demand eases and speculation becomes gradually less intense. So while the risks warrant close monitoring, the TD Economics base case projection is for a moderation in western housing activity, but with the price gains, home construction and resale activity all remaining at well above their historical averages. The regional condo markets are likely to be caught up and parallel these broad regional real estate trends, with the result that condo prices are expected to continue to post double digit gains in the west, but slower than that experienced in 2005/06, while prices in the rest of the country advance at a mid-single digit rate. Looking beyond the near-term outlook, there is fundamental support for condos in the major Canadian markets from structural economic trends, including the aging population and the continued urbanization of the country.
More here:
http://www.td.com/economics/special/ca0507_condo.pdf
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Prepare for lower real estate prices
Prepare for lower real estate prices
No guarantee that U.S. meltdown won't spread here
David Berman
Financial Post
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
It's hard to find experts in Canada who are concerned that the real estate chaos swirling around next door could hop the border and rattle the housing market here. Well, not yet anyway.
Those who believe the Canadian market is on solid ground will find evidence to support their views when they get a look at housing starts for March (released this morning) and the new housing price index for February (tomorrow). Both are expected to show that Canada's housing market is holding steady amid the downturn to the south.
But if you're the sort of investor who can't help but wonder if Canada must eventually follow the U.S. lead -- a natural instinct given that Canada follows on so many other issues -- you may want to skip the Canadian figures.
Instead, head straight for the words of U.S. central bankers and get their take on housing: The worse it is in the United States, the more reason to worry about the situation here.
This afternoon, the U.S. Federal Reserve releases the minutes from the last Federal Open Markets Committee, on March 21. At that meeting, the committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, but said in its statement that "the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing."
That is likely code for "quite frankly, the housing sector scares us" -- and the minutes will say more about it.
They have good reason to be scared. In the United States, home prices are tumbling, foreclosures are rising and few are confident the downturn has hit bottom yet. It's a rough time to contemplate buying a home.
Just as worrying, tightening credit conditions and the fact that current homeowners can no longer count on an appreciating market could wreck consumer confidence, which can hit economic growth.
Most Canadians are fully aware of our neighbour's problems. However, the prevailing wisdom is that real estate is a local market and it all boils down to the ''location, location location'' mantra, which should protect us from any sort of copycat debacle.
"Can we say that there are ominous parallels between what is happening in the U.S. and what will happen in Canada? I doubt it," said Bart Melek, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "It is a fundamentally different market. The structure is different."
U.S. consumers had to ride an upswing in interest rates from 1% in 2003 to 5.25% today, a much more volatile ride than that experienced by Canadian consumers.
At the same time, U.S. loan requirements -- which included 0% downpayments in some cases -- were far looser. And lastly, the Canadian economy is in better shape.
But there's at least one important factor Canada shares with the United States: overvaluation. House prices here have risen to a point where BCA Research believes they are 28% overvalued, based on comparisons with gross domestic product and competing assets, just as house prices were once widely believed to be overvalued in the United States.
With U.S. prices now coming down, it's not hard to envision a similar price-chop here. Few see it now, but that's the best time to prepare yourself.
dberman@nationalpost.com
No guarantee that U.S. meltdown won't spread here
David Berman
Financial Post
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
It's hard to find experts in Canada who are concerned that the real estate chaos swirling around next door could hop the border and rattle the housing market here. Well, not yet anyway.
Those who believe the Canadian market is on solid ground will find evidence to support their views when they get a look at housing starts for March (released this morning) and the new housing price index for February (tomorrow). Both are expected to show that Canada's housing market is holding steady amid the downturn to the south.
But if you're the sort of investor who can't help but wonder if Canada must eventually follow the U.S. lead -- a natural instinct given that Canada follows on so many other issues -- you may want to skip the Canadian figures.
Instead, head straight for the words of U.S. central bankers and get their take on housing: The worse it is in the United States, the more reason to worry about the situation here.
This afternoon, the U.S. Federal Reserve releases the minutes from the last Federal Open Markets Committee, on March 21. At that meeting, the committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, but said in its statement that "the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing."
That is likely code for "quite frankly, the housing sector scares us" -- and the minutes will say more about it.
They have good reason to be scared. In the United States, home prices are tumbling, foreclosures are rising and few are confident the downturn has hit bottom yet. It's a rough time to contemplate buying a home.
Just as worrying, tightening credit conditions and the fact that current homeowners can no longer count on an appreciating market could wreck consumer confidence, which can hit economic growth.
Most Canadians are fully aware of our neighbour's problems. However, the prevailing wisdom is that real estate is a local market and it all boils down to the ''location, location location'' mantra, which should protect us from any sort of copycat debacle.
"Can we say that there are ominous parallels between what is happening in the U.S. and what will happen in Canada? I doubt it," said Bart Melek, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "It is a fundamentally different market. The structure is different."
U.S. consumers had to ride an upswing in interest rates from 1% in 2003 to 5.25% today, a much more volatile ride than that experienced by Canadian consumers.
At the same time, U.S. loan requirements -- which included 0% downpayments in some cases -- were far looser. And lastly, the Canadian economy is in better shape.
But there's at least one important factor Canada shares with the United States: overvaluation. House prices here have risen to a point where BCA Research believes they are 28% overvalued, based on comparisons with gross domestic product and competing assets, just as house prices were once widely believed to be overvalued in the United States.
With U.S. prices now coming down, it's not hard to envision a similar price-chop here. Few see it now, but that's the best time to prepare yourself.
dberman@nationalpost.com
Thursday, April 5, 2007
Real estate market still on boil
Real estate market still on boil
Southwest-area houses average half a million dollars; solid gains expected until late summer
Ron Chalmers
The Edmonton Journal
Thursday, April 05, 2007
CREDIT: Bruce Edwards, The Journal
HOUSE PRICES HOT: Average home prices in southwest Edmonton topped half a million dollars last month. The house shown above sold recently for $499,900.
EDMONTON - Average house prices now exceed half a million dollars in southwest Edmonton and are almost $400,000 across the area.
"Housing prices have not yet peaked," Carolyn Pratt, president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board, said Wednesday, releasing the March figures for sales through the Multiple Listing Service.
Edmonton-area prices averaged $398,476 for single-family homes and $325,339 for all housing forms.
In only the first three months of this year, average house prices have climbed 16.5 per cent, surpassing Pratt's original forecast of a 15-per-cent rise for the full year.
"We're predicting that prices will continue to rise until August, at four to five per cent per month, then at two per cent per month," she now says, citing Edmonton's continuing in-migration, strong demand, low inventory and prices that still are below Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary.
Averages for single-family homes ranged from $501,838 in southwest Edmonton and $484,168 in St. Albert to $320,600 in Morinville, $312,730 in northeast Edmonton and $281,480 in central Edmonton.
The high-priced southwest has high-quality homes, says Madeline Sarafinchan of Jayman Realty. It also has good access to the University of Alberta, South Edmonton Common and the International Airport -- and its newest neighbourhoods "are well planned with a lot of park space."
Sarafinchan recently sold a 1,689 square-foot house in Rutherford, in the southwest, for $499,900. It has hardwood floors and a gas fireplace on the main floor, three bedrooms, two-and-a-half baths, attached double garage and upgraded insulation -- on an 11-metre by 35-metre lot.
Edmonton-area condominium prices actually fell $547 in March from February, to an average of $246,719.
Condo prices normally are more volatile than house prices, Pratt said.
This March, 1,236 condos were listed -- almost double the 621 listings in March 2006. Pratt thought the spike was caused by investors selling condos that they had been renting out.
Among all housing forms, the EREB reported 3,091 new listings in March, 2,359 sales and a month-end inventory of 2,574 units.
ComFree Edmonton acquired 664 new listings in March, with 513 sales at an average price of $350,300 and a remaining inventory of 893 units.
rchalmers@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2007
Southwest-area houses average half a million dollars; solid gains expected until late summer
Ron Chalmers
The Edmonton Journal
Thursday, April 05, 2007
CREDIT: Bruce Edwards, The Journal
HOUSE PRICES HOT: Average home prices in southwest Edmonton topped half a million dollars last month. The house shown above sold recently for $499,900.
EDMONTON - Average house prices now exceed half a million dollars in southwest Edmonton and are almost $400,000 across the area.
"Housing prices have not yet peaked," Carolyn Pratt, president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board, said Wednesday, releasing the March figures for sales through the Multiple Listing Service.
Edmonton-area prices averaged $398,476 for single-family homes and $325,339 for all housing forms.
In only the first three months of this year, average house prices have climbed 16.5 per cent, surpassing Pratt's original forecast of a 15-per-cent rise for the full year.
"We're predicting that prices will continue to rise until August, at four to five per cent per month, then at two per cent per month," she now says, citing Edmonton's continuing in-migration, strong demand, low inventory and prices that still are below Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary.
Averages for single-family homes ranged from $501,838 in southwest Edmonton and $484,168 in St. Albert to $320,600 in Morinville, $312,730 in northeast Edmonton and $281,480 in central Edmonton.
The high-priced southwest has high-quality homes, says Madeline Sarafinchan of Jayman Realty. It also has good access to the University of Alberta, South Edmonton Common and the International Airport -- and its newest neighbourhoods "are well planned with a lot of park space."
Sarafinchan recently sold a 1,689 square-foot house in Rutherford, in the southwest, for $499,900. It has hardwood floors and a gas fireplace on the main floor, three bedrooms, two-and-a-half baths, attached double garage and upgraded insulation -- on an 11-metre by 35-metre lot.
Edmonton-area condominium prices actually fell $547 in March from February, to an average of $246,719.
Condo prices normally are more volatile than house prices, Pratt said.
This March, 1,236 condos were listed -- almost double the 621 listings in March 2006. Pratt thought the spike was caused by investors selling condos that they had been renting out.
Among all housing forms, the EREB reported 3,091 new listings in March, 2,359 sales and a month-end inventory of 2,574 units.
ComFree Edmonton acquired 664 new listings in March, with 513 sales at an average price of $350,300 and a remaining inventory of 893 units.
rchalmers@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2007
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Wave of bullish articles
More news on how hot the RE market is. We'll track these so that we can see how long before the stories flip-flop...
Canadian homes pricier than ever
Units sold down slightly: report
Carrie Tait
Financial Post
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
CREDIT: (Photo: Reuters)
The average price jumps to a record high of $311,101 in February.
TORONTO -- Housing prices may be at a record high, but it isn’t stopping Canadians from buying new homes.
The average price of a home rang in at $311,101 in February, up 10% from last February's price of $282,744 and topping an all-time housing price high set in January, 2006, according to data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association on Wednesday.
A number of cities experienced new housing price highs including Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Hamilton-Burlington, London & St. Thomas, Ottawa, Quebec City and Saint John, according to measurements collected by the Multiple Listing Service and released by CREA.
Seasonally adjusted home sales in Canada’s major markets totaled 29,955 in February, down just 1% or 312 from 30,267 in January, 2007, when unit sales reached the highest level for any month. Toronto dragged down February’s sales results, but slowness in this market was offset by higher activity in Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary and Saskatoon, CREA said.
Seasonally adjusted new residential listing clocked in at 46,323 units last month, down 3.2% from Janurary. Vancouver and Toronto suffered the most. With less listings, the housing market became tighter than any point since September 2005. Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Calgary and Winnipeg have been pinched the most, CREA said.
Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, says the housing market will continue to be strong on the back of recent mortgage interest rate cuts, a healthy job market and rising incomes.
“With momentum for resale housing activity showing few signs of fatigue so far, the spring home buying season this year may be one for the record books,” he said.
ctait@nationalpost.com
Canadian homes pricier than ever
Units sold down slightly: report
Carrie Tait
Financial Post
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
CREDIT: (Photo: Reuters)
The average price jumps to a record high of $311,101 in February.
TORONTO -- Housing prices may be at a record high, but it isn’t stopping Canadians from buying new homes.
The average price of a home rang in at $311,101 in February, up 10% from last February's price of $282,744 and topping an all-time housing price high set in January, 2006, according to data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association on Wednesday.
A number of cities experienced new housing price highs including Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Hamilton-Burlington, London & St. Thomas, Ottawa, Quebec City and Saint John, according to measurements collected by the Multiple Listing Service and released by CREA.
Seasonally adjusted home sales in Canada’s major markets totaled 29,955 in February, down just 1% or 312 from 30,267 in January, 2007, when unit sales reached the highest level for any month. Toronto dragged down February’s sales results, but slowness in this market was offset by higher activity in Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary and Saskatoon, CREA said.
Seasonally adjusted new residential listing clocked in at 46,323 units last month, down 3.2% from Janurary. Vancouver and Toronto suffered the most. With less listings, the housing market became tighter than any point since September 2005. Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Calgary and Winnipeg have been pinched the most, CREA said.
Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, says the housing market will continue to be strong on the back of recent mortgage interest rate cuts, a healthy job market and rising incomes.
“With momentum for resale housing activity showing few signs of fatigue so far, the spring home buying season this year may be one for the record books,” he said.
ctait@nationalpost.com
Friday, March 9, 2007
Analysts shrug off housing starts plunge
Analysts shrug off housing starts plunge
Rakshande Italia
CanWest News Service
Friday, March 09, 2007
TORONTO -Canadian housing starts fell by a relatively steep 21 per cent in February, but analysts said the downturn should not be a cause for concern.
Housing starts dropped to 196,200 units last month from 248,500 units in January, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CHMC) said Thursday.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate compiled by CHMC, however, does not surprise housing experts. Analysts said that high employment figures, a booming economy in Western Canada and a lower loonie still show the economy is strong.
Below-seasonal temperatures were a contributing factor to the downturn, they added, noting that a return to more normal weather, coupled with low interest rates and innovative mortgage schemes now in the market, should support housing. Still, all agreed there is a slowdown in the market this year compared with last year.
"Given the fact that much of the adjustment is weather-related and due to a likely slowdown in job creation from extremely high levels, this correction is very much a giving back of borrowed activity," and does not point to a deepening downward trend," Bart Melek, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said.
Melek said that the unseasonably warm weather throughout much of January, and a very strong employment environment, boosted starts above sustainable levels that month. He added that areas such as Alberta and B.C. tended to do better then Central Canada, as the boom there obviously boosted jobs and housing.
Housing starts dropped in all regions last month, with double-digit declines in Ontario (32.8 per cent), the Prairies (25.4 per cent), Quebec (15.2 per cent) and B.C. (18.6 per cent).
Multiples also declined in all regions except in the Atlantic. Single starts were down everywhere except in British Columbia.
The numbers in rural and urban areas were down 5.2 per cent in the first two months of 2007 compared with the same period in 2006.
TD Bank Economist Pascal Gauthier said that regional disparities aside, there seems to be a soft landing in most major metro markets, especially in Ontario and Quebec.
"However, the Canadian housing market has been faring better than its U.S. counterpart largely because it has not been driven to the same extent by speculative investment or higher risk sub prime lending," he added.
Gauthier said Canada's hottest market, Alberta, is cooling, and the slowdown is proceeding in an orderly fashion.
Canada's new housing price index, released Thursday by Statistics Canada, shows that the year-over-year increase for Alberta edged down to 40.6 per cent in January, from 42 per cent in Dec. The year-over-year increase for the nation went down to 10.1 per cent in January, from 10.7 per cent in December 2006 .
Gauthier said the resale market continues to hold strong and constitutes the bulk of the market.
Financial Post
irakshande@nationalpost
Rakshande Italia
CanWest News Service
Friday, March 09, 2007
TORONTO -Canadian housing starts fell by a relatively steep 21 per cent in February, but analysts said the downturn should not be a cause for concern.
Housing starts dropped to 196,200 units last month from 248,500 units in January, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CHMC) said Thursday.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate compiled by CHMC, however, does not surprise housing experts. Analysts said that high employment figures, a booming economy in Western Canada and a lower loonie still show the economy is strong.
Below-seasonal temperatures were a contributing factor to the downturn, they added, noting that a return to more normal weather, coupled with low interest rates and innovative mortgage schemes now in the market, should support housing. Still, all agreed there is a slowdown in the market this year compared with last year.
"Given the fact that much of the adjustment is weather-related and due to a likely slowdown in job creation from extremely high levels, this correction is very much a giving back of borrowed activity," and does not point to a deepening downward trend," Bart Melek, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said.
Melek said that the unseasonably warm weather throughout much of January, and a very strong employment environment, boosted starts above sustainable levels that month. He added that areas such as Alberta and B.C. tended to do better then Central Canada, as the boom there obviously boosted jobs and housing.
Housing starts dropped in all regions last month, with double-digit declines in Ontario (32.8 per cent), the Prairies (25.4 per cent), Quebec (15.2 per cent) and B.C. (18.6 per cent).
Multiples also declined in all regions except in the Atlantic. Single starts were down everywhere except in British Columbia.
The numbers in rural and urban areas were down 5.2 per cent in the first two months of 2007 compared with the same period in 2006.
TD Bank Economist Pascal Gauthier said that regional disparities aside, there seems to be a soft landing in most major metro markets, especially in Ontario and Quebec.
"However, the Canadian housing market has been faring better than its U.S. counterpart largely because it has not been driven to the same extent by speculative investment or higher risk sub prime lending," he added.
Gauthier said Canada's hottest market, Alberta, is cooling, and the slowdown is proceeding in an orderly fashion.
Canada's new housing price index, released Thursday by Statistics Canada, shows that the year-over-year increase for Alberta edged down to 40.6 per cent in January, from 42 per cent in Dec. The year-over-year increase for the nation went down to 10.1 per cent in January, from 10.7 per cent in December 2006 .
Gauthier said the resale market continues to hold strong and constitutes the bulk of the market.
Financial Post
irakshande@nationalpost
Analysts shrug off housing starts plunge
Analysts shrug off housing starts plunge
Rakshande Italia
CanWest News Service
Friday, March 09, 2007
TORONTO -Canadian housing starts fell by a relatively steep 21 per cent in February, but analysts said the downturn should not be a cause for concern.
Housing starts dropped to 196,200 units last month from 248,500 units in January, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CHMC) said Thursday.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate compiled by CHMC, however, does not surprise housing experts. Analysts said that high employment figures, a booming economy in Western Canada and a lower loonie still show the economy is strong.
Below-seasonal temperatures were a contributing factor to the downturn, they added, noting that a return to more normal weather, coupled with low interest rates and innovative mortgage schemes now in the market, should support housing. Still, all agreed there is a slowdown in the market this year compared with last year.
"Given the fact that much of the adjustment is weather-related and due to a likely slowdown in job creation from extremely high levels, this correction is very much a giving back of borrowed activity," and does not point to a deepening downward trend," Bart Melek, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said.
Melek said that the unseasonably warm weather throughout much of January, and a very strong employment environment, boosted starts above sustainable levels that month. He added that areas such as Alberta and B.C. tended to do better then Central Canada, as the boom there obviously boosted jobs and housing.
Housing starts dropped in all regions last month, with double-digit declines in Ontario (32.8 per cent), the Prairies (25.4 per cent), Quebec (15.2 per cent) and B.C. (18.6 per cent).
Multiples also declined in all regions except in the Atlantic. Single starts were down everywhere except in British Columbia.
The numbers in rural and urban areas were down 5.2 per cent in the first two months of 2007 compared with the same period in 2006.
TD Bank Economist Pascal Gauthier said that regional disparities aside, there seems to be a soft landing in most major metro markets, especially in Ontario and Quebec.
"However, the Canadian housing market has been faring better than its U.S. counterpart largely because it has not been driven to the same extent by speculative investment or higher risk sub prime lending," he added.
Gauthier said Canada's hottest market, Alberta, is cooling, and the slowdown is proceeding in an orderly fashion.
Canada's new housing price index, released Thursday by Statistics Canada, shows that the year-over-year increase for Alberta edged down to 40.6 per cent in January, from 42 per cent in Dec. The year-over-year increase for the nation went down to 10.1 per cent in January, from 10.7 per cent in December 2006 .
Gauthier said the resale market continues to hold strong and constitutes the bulk of the market.
Financial Post
irakshande@nationalpost
Rakshande Italia
CanWest News Service
Friday, March 09, 2007
TORONTO -Canadian housing starts fell by a relatively steep 21 per cent in February, but analysts said the downturn should not be a cause for concern.
Housing starts dropped to 196,200 units last month from 248,500 units in January, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CHMC) said Thursday.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate compiled by CHMC, however, does not surprise housing experts. Analysts said that high employment figures, a booming economy in Western Canada and a lower loonie still show the economy is strong.
Below-seasonal temperatures were a contributing factor to the downturn, they added, noting that a return to more normal weather, coupled with low interest rates and innovative mortgage schemes now in the market, should support housing. Still, all agreed there is a slowdown in the market this year compared with last year.
"Given the fact that much of the adjustment is weather-related and due to a likely slowdown in job creation from extremely high levels, this correction is very much a giving back of borrowed activity," and does not point to a deepening downward trend," Bart Melek, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said.
Melek said that the unseasonably warm weather throughout much of January, and a very strong employment environment, boosted starts above sustainable levels that month. He added that areas such as Alberta and B.C. tended to do better then Central Canada, as the boom there obviously boosted jobs and housing.
Housing starts dropped in all regions last month, with double-digit declines in Ontario (32.8 per cent), the Prairies (25.4 per cent), Quebec (15.2 per cent) and B.C. (18.6 per cent).
Multiples also declined in all regions except in the Atlantic. Single starts were down everywhere except in British Columbia.
The numbers in rural and urban areas were down 5.2 per cent in the first two months of 2007 compared with the same period in 2006.
TD Bank Economist Pascal Gauthier said that regional disparities aside, there seems to be a soft landing in most major metro markets, especially in Ontario and Quebec.
"However, the Canadian housing market has been faring better than its U.S. counterpart largely because it has not been driven to the same extent by speculative investment or higher risk sub prime lending," he added.
Gauthier said Canada's hottest market, Alberta, is cooling, and the slowdown is proceeding in an orderly fashion.
Canada's new housing price index, released Thursday by Statistics Canada, shows that the year-over-year increase for Alberta edged down to 40.6 per cent in January, from 42 per cent in Dec. The year-over-year increase for the nation went down to 10.1 per cent in January, from 10.7 per cent in December 2006 .
Gauthier said the resale market continues to hold strong and constitutes the bulk of the market.
Financial Post
irakshande@nationalpost
Thursday, March 8, 2007
Canadian housing starts tumble
Canadian housing starts tumble
Falling 21%, missing estimates
Reuters
Thursday, March 08, 2007
CREDIT: Getty
The number of starts in February missed the consensus expectations of analysts who had called for 218,000 starts.TORONTO -- Canadian housing starts fell 21% in February to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 196,200 units from a revised 248,500 units in January, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said on Thursday.
The number of starts in February missed the consensus expectations of analysts who had called for 218,000 starts.
Urban multiple housing starts, which include condominium and apartments, fell 33% to an annual rate of 82,800 units from 123,500 in February, while urban single-family dwellings declined 12.6% to 80,400 units from 92,000.
Rural starts in February were estimated at an annual rate of 33,000 units, unchanged from January.
Falling 21%, missing estimates
Reuters
Thursday, March 08, 2007
CREDIT: Getty
The number of starts in February missed the consensus expectations of analysts who had called for 218,000 starts.TORONTO -- Canadian housing starts fell 21% in February to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 196,200 units from a revised 248,500 units in January, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said on Thursday.
The number of starts in February missed the consensus expectations of analysts who had called for 218,000 starts.
Urban multiple housing starts, which include condominium and apartments, fell 33% to an annual rate of 82,800 units from 123,500 in February, while urban single-family dwellings declined 12.6% to 80,400 units from 92,000.
Rural starts in February were estimated at an annual rate of 33,000 units, unchanged from January.
Local house prices continue meteoric climb
Local house prices continue meteoric climbOTTAWA (CP) — The western boom towns of Edmonton and Calgary drove new house prices to a 10.1 per cent gain in January over a year earlier, while month-to-month costs increased in 10 of 21 survey areas.Edmonton led the way, with new house prices rising 1.6 per cent over December, followed by Calgary (0.8), as costs for construction materials, in particular concrete, and labour for excavation and painting were contributing factors.The largest 12-month increase took place in Calgary, where new house prices rose 40.8 per cent over January 2006, followed closely by Edmonton at 40.2 per cent.Saskatoon, at 16.1 per cent, Regina (8.3), Winnipeg (7.8) and Vancouver (6.9) also had noteworthy year-over-year gains.Land prices rose in three of the 10 metropolitan areas registering monthly increases.Seven metropolitan areas registered no monthly change and, with a 0.4 per cent drop, Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay, Ont., showed the largest decrease due to competitive factors. Charlottetown, Ottawau Gatineau and Kitchener, Ont., were also down from the previous month.
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
February house prices defy forecast of slowdown
February house prices defy forecast of slowdown
Ron Chalmers
The Edmonton Journal
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
EDMONTON - Edmonton home prices still are soaring -- despite forecasts that they would slow in the new year.
Single-family homes sold at an average price of $375,412 in February, up 5.1 per cent from January -- which was up 4.5 per cent from December.
Carolyn Pratt, president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board, had expected prices to rise 15 per cent in the entire year. But with 10 months to go, "they're catching up very quickly to my 15 per cent," she said Monday.
"People are buying because they see the prices increase and they want to buy before there are further increases," Pratt said.
On the supply side, "we're getting listings, but as soon as they come in, they sell."
The number of new listings through the Multiple Listing Service was 2,224 in February -- up 21 per cent from February 2006.
Meanwhile, Com-Free, which helps people sell their own homes, reported listing 915 homes in the first two months of 2007 -- up 52 per cent from the first two months of 2006.
During February, MLS homes sold after an average of 27 days on the market, compared to 35 days in February 2006, and 45 days in February 2005.
Many potential sellers are ignoring today's excellent opportunity, Pratt said "A lot of people hold off because they feel that their home will show at its best in the spring and summer."
In other years, a seller might do best by waiting until the snow is gone and flowers are blooming.
"This year, it wouldn't matter," Pratt said.
"People could put their homes on the market any time and they would be well received." With the arrival of spring, however, "I think there should be more supply," she said.
Condominiums continue to gain market share. In the first two months of 2007, condos captured 27 per cent of sales compared to 21 per cent in the first two months of 2006.
"For most first-time buyers, condos are what they can afford," Pratt said.
Condo prices averaged $247,266 in February -- up from $146,933 a year earlier.
rchalmers@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2007
Ron Chalmers
The Edmonton Journal
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
EDMONTON - Edmonton home prices still are soaring -- despite forecasts that they would slow in the new year.
Single-family homes sold at an average price of $375,412 in February, up 5.1 per cent from January -- which was up 4.5 per cent from December.
Carolyn Pratt, president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board, had expected prices to rise 15 per cent in the entire year. But with 10 months to go, "they're catching up very quickly to my 15 per cent," she said Monday.
"People are buying because they see the prices increase and they want to buy before there are further increases," Pratt said.
On the supply side, "we're getting listings, but as soon as they come in, they sell."
The number of new listings through the Multiple Listing Service was 2,224 in February -- up 21 per cent from February 2006.
Meanwhile, Com-Free, which helps people sell their own homes, reported listing 915 homes in the first two months of 2007 -- up 52 per cent from the first two months of 2006.
During February, MLS homes sold after an average of 27 days on the market, compared to 35 days in February 2006, and 45 days in February 2005.
Many potential sellers are ignoring today's excellent opportunity, Pratt said "A lot of people hold off because they feel that their home will show at its best in the spring and summer."
In other years, a seller might do best by waiting until the snow is gone and flowers are blooming.
"This year, it wouldn't matter," Pratt said.
"People could put their homes on the market any time and they would be well received." With the arrival of spring, however, "I think there should be more supply," she said.
Condominiums continue to gain market share. In the first two months of 2007, condos captured 27 per cent of sales compared to 21 per cent in the first two months of 2006.
"For most first-time buyers, condos are what they can afford," Pratt said.
Condo prices averaged $247,266 in February -- up from $146,933 a year earlier.
rchalmers@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2007
The Economy of Oil and Gas - Canada will stay top U.S. oil supplier for 20 years
Positive news for oil and gas - how effect do articles like this produce?
Canada will stay top U.S. oil supplier for 20 years
Ashok Dutta
CanWest News Service; Calgary Herald
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
CALGARY -Canada - which in 2005 replaced Saudi Arabia as the single-largest supplier of energy to the U.S. - will continue that position over at least the next two decades, thanks to the multi-billion dollar oilsands developments in Alberta.
"The projects in Fort McMurray and Athabasca will ensure that Canada remains in the top spot until 2030," Guy Caruso, administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said Monday on the sidelines of an industry conference in Calgary.
According to EIA estimates, Canadian exports to the U.S. will reach 2.6 million barrels per day by 2030, compared with current levels of just over one million bpd.
"Oilsands will account for a vast majority of this incremental exports. The remaining volumes will be sourced from the conventional oil sources in Canada," he said.
Since 9/11, the U.S. has been pursuing a policy of reducing reliance on Middle East oil. Until recently, Saudi Aramco was the single-largest supplier of crude oil to the U.S. under a long-term deal offering a favourable lifting and delivery price. That scenario has changed, however.
In an address to the U.S. Congress late last year, President George W. Bush spoke of the need to decrease 75 per cent dependence on Middle East oil due to volatility in the region.
"We will see a growth in supply from not only Western Canada, but also the Middle East. However, the increased demand will be spread over several Arabian Gulf suppliers and not be solely reliant on Saudi Arabia. A majority of Saudi oil is destined for the Asian markets, particularly China and India," Caruso said.
The U.S. is the world's largest consumer of crude oil, estimated to be 22 million bpd. According to the EIA, demand is projected to grow 30 per cent over the next 25 years with fossil fuels catering to a bulk of the new energy requirements.
Caruso revised upwards EIA's forecasts for crude oil prices for 2007 to $50-55 per barrel, compared with $30-35 earlier.
"The main reasons are high investments, particularly in the Middle East, a growing restriction on upstream access to international oil companies to new reserves and rising cost of project development and implementation. In the past five years, capital costs have risen 50 to 60 per cent and this is continuing to soar," he said.
Saudi Arabia, with proven reserves of 267 billion barrels of crude oil, is pursuing mega projects of bringing onstream the Manifa, Shaybah, Khurais and Nuayyim projects by 2010 in the Eastern Province. A staggering $45 billion is being invested to produce about two million bpd new production capacity. By comparison, some $150 billion is earmarked for investment by 2015 in Alberta's 175-billion barrel oilsands to increase output by about 1.5 million bpd.
While U.S. imports of crude oil from Western Canada is set to rise sharply, a different picture emerges for natural gas.
"U.S. consumption of gas by 2030 will increase to 26 trillion cubic feet from current levels of 22 tcf. However, Canadian supplies will go down to 1.2 tcf compared with 3.3 tcf," Caruso said at the CERI 2007 Natural gas Conference.
Prime reasons are low gas prices, which has made drilling and upstream development unattractive, and also the growing need to meet demand emanating from the oilsands projects.
"In the medium-term, we are looking at the Alaskan gas project which we expect to start deliveries in 2018. Gas from the McKenzie Delta will also be very vital," Caruso said.
adutta@theherald.canwest.com
Calgary Herald
Canada will stay top U.S. oil supplier for 20 years
Ashok Dutta
CanWest News Service; Calgary Herald
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
CALGARY -Canada - which in 2005 replaced Saudi Arabia as the single-largest supplier of energy to the U.S. - will continue that position over at least the next two decades, thanks to the multi-billion dollar oilsands developments in Alberta.
"The projects in Fort McMurray and Athabasca will ensure that Canada remains in the top spot until 2030," Guy Caruso, administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said Monday on the sidelines of an industry conference in Calgary.
According to EIA estimates, Canadian exports to the U.S. will reach 2.6 million barrels per day by 2030, compared with current levels of just over one million bpd.
"Oilsands will account for a vast majority of this incremental exports. The remaining volumes will be sourced from the conventional oil sources in Canada," he said.
Since 9/11, the U.S. has been pursuing a policy of reducing reliance on Middle East oil. Until recently, Saudi Aramco was the single-largest supplier of crude oil to the U.S. under a long-term deal offering a favourable lifting and delivery price. That scenario has changed, however.
In an address to the U.S. Congress late last year, President George W. Bush spoke of the need to decrease 75 per cent dependence on Middle East oil due to volatility in the region.
"We will see a growth in supply from not only Western Canada, but also the Middle East. However, the increased demand will be spread over several Arabian Gulf suppliers and not be solely reliant on Saudi Arabia. A majority of Saudi oil is destined for the Asian markets, particularly China and India," Caruso said.
The U.S. is the world's largest consumer of crude oil, estimated to be 22 million bpd. According to the EIA, demand is projected to grow 30 per cent over the next 25 years with fossil fuels catering to a bulk of the new energy requirements.
Caruso revised upwards EIA's forecasts for crude oil prices for 2007 to $50-55 per barrel, compared with $30-35 earlier.
"The main reasons are high investments, particularly in the Middle East, a growing restriction on upstream access to international oil companies to new reserves and rising cost of project development and implementation. In the past five years, capital costs have risen 50 to 60 per cent and this is continuing to soar," he said.
Saudi Arabia, with proven reserves of 267 billion barrels of crude oil, is pursuing mega projects of bringing onstream the Manifa, Shaybah, Khurais and Nuayyim projects by 2010 in the Eastern Province. A staggering $45 billion is being invested to produce about two million bpd new production capacity. By comparison, some $150 billion is earmarked for investment by 2015 in Alberta's 175-billion barrel oilsands to increase output by about 1.5 million bpd.
While U.S. imports of crude oil from Western Canada is set to rise sharply, a different picture emerges for natural gas.
"U.S. consumption of gas by 2030 will increase to 26 trillion cubic feet from current levels of 22 tcf. However, Canadian supplies will go down to 1.2 tcf compared with 3.3 tcf," Caruso said at the CERI 2007 Natural gas Conference.
Prime reasons are low gas prices, which has made drilling and upstream development unattractive, and also the growing need to meet demand emanating from the oilsands projects.
"In the medium-term, we are looking at the Alaskan gas project which we expect to start deliveries in 2018. Gas from the McKenzie Delta will also be very vital," Caruso said.
adutta@theherald.canwest.com
Calgary Herald
Monday, March 5, 2007
Cool weather fails to slow housing market
Cool weather fails to slow housing market
Edmonton, March 5, 2007: Cool weather and heavy snowfalls in February did not prevent home buyers from investing in real estate. Residential sales in the Edmonton area were up 17.5 percent with 1,886 sales as compared to 1,605 in February 2006.
“February was particularly strong,” said Carolyn Pratt, president of the EREB. “Prices continue to climb and there are no indications that the local housing market will cool off in the near future.” The average price for all residential properties combined was $321,307 Last February the average price was $211,531.
The average price* of a single family dwelling rose to $375,412 which is up 5.1% from January. Condominium prices also rose 6.0% from last month to $247,266;. Duplex and rowhouse prices went up by 8.6% for a month end price of $319,513.
Inventory continues to be a concern for REALTORS® and their clients. There were just 2,120 residential listings on the Multiple Listing Service® at the end of February. That compares to 2,595 listings at the same time last year. “New listings come onto the market everyday,” said Pratt. “It is important for a buyer to keep in constant touch with their REALTOR® and be able to move quickly when a desirable property becomes available.”
The average days on market was 27 down from 33 days in January. Total value of residential transactions through the MLS® in February was $606 million. Total sales of all types of property was $695 million for the month. This is an increase of 76% from February 2006.
February 2007 activity
Record for the month*
% change from February 2006
Total MLS® sales this month
2,094*
16.7%
Value of total MLS® sales - month
$696 million*
76.3%
Value of total MLS® sales - year
$1.256 billion*
88.9%
Residential¹ sales this month
1,886*
17.5%
Residential average price
$321,307*
51.9%
SFD² average selling price - month
$375,412*
50.2%
SFD² median³ selling price
361300
51.8%
Condo average selling price
$247,266*
68.3%
¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses. ². Single Family Dwelling ³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices
Edmonton, March 5, 2007: Cool weather and heavy snowfalls in February did not prevent home buyers from investing in real estate. Residential sales in the Edmonton area were up 17.5 percent with 1,886 sales as compared to 1,605 in February 2006.
“February was particularly strong,” said Carolyn Pratt, president of the EREB. “Prices continue to climb and there are no indications that the local housing market will cool off in the near future.” The average price for all residential properties combined was $321,307 Last February the average price was $211,531.
The average price* of a single family dwelling rose to $375,412 which is up 5.1% from January. Condominium prices also rose 6.0% from last month to $247,266;. Duplex and rowhouse prices went up by 8.6% for a month end price of $319,513.
Inventory continues to be a concern for REALTORS® and their clients. There were just 2,120 residential listings on the Multiple Listing Service® at the end of February. That compares to 2,595 listings at the same time last year. “New listings come onto the market everyday,” said Pratt. “It is important for a buyer to keep in constant touch with their REALTOR® and be able to move quickly when a desirable property becomes available.”
The average days on market was 27 down from 33 days in January. Total value of residential transactions through the MLS® in February was $606 million. Total sales of all types of property was $695 million for the month. This is an increase of 76% from February 2006.
February 2007 activity
Record for the month*
% change from February 2006
Total MLS® sales this month
2,094*
16.7%
Value of total MLS® sales - month
$696 million*
76.3%
Value of total MLS® sales - year
$1.256 billion*
88.9%
Residential¹ sales this month
1,886*
17.5%
Residential average price
$321,307*
51.9%
SFD² average selling price - month
$375,412*
50.2%
SFD² median³ selling price
361300
51.8%
Condo average selling price
$247,266*
68.3%
¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses. ². Single Family Dwelling ³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices
More on Condo Conversions
With more condo coversions entering the market, it is much more difficult to determine supply.
Here is a article from Edmonton:
Mondo Condo While Edmonton's population booms, 1,000 apartments a year are lost to condominium conversions Duncan Thorne
The Edmonton Journal Sunday, March 04, 2007
CREDIT: Rick Macwilliam, The Journal, File
In new construction, developers overwhelmingly favour condo projects, like this tower on 104th Street north of Jasper Avenue, over apartments.
EDMONTON - Barbara Hagensen remembers scrambling to find an apartment when she arrived in Edmonton during the boom of the early 1980s. More than 25 years later, the city and province are booming again. But her 1981 search was a cakewalk compared to the task she may now face -- finding a new, affordable apartment in a city that has fewer places to rent now than it did 20 years ago. According to statistics gathered by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), there were about 79,600 rental units in the region in 1987. Last year, there were 5,050 fewer, a drop of 6.3 per cent. Most of the original units were turned into condos. The company that owns Hagensen's current apartment, one of 504 units in Strathearn Heights Apartments, just outside downtown, has given notice it plans to tear the complex down and put up condos. "I am really concerned about my neighbours who are on fixed income," Hagensen says. The problem is unlikely to get better any time soon. "Throughout most of the past 20 years the (rental) universe has been declining because of condo conversions," says Richard Goatcher, senior market analyst at CMHC. "What we've seen is that around 1,000 units a year have been leaving the universe to become condominium properties over the last couple of years." Between 1987 and 2006, the region's population soared by almost 233,000, or 29 per cent, to more than a million people. That obviously boosts demand for rentals. There is a little apartment construction to make up for those lost to conversion. Last year, for instance, work began on about 270 units. Overwhelmingly, developers concentrate on building condos. They built more than 5,600 units in 2006. "Our rental inventory has just gone downhill," says Clarence Rusnell, past president of the Edmonton Apartment Association. The city has earmarked $25 million over five years, under its Cornerstones program, to help developers provide 2,500 affordable units. That's 500 units a year -- not enough to make up for conversions to condos, officials say. Coun. Michael Phair, who handles council's housing responsibilities, says the city can do nothing to stem the conversion flood. Provincial law entitles building owners to convert. The city provided incentives for new housing downtown in the late 1990s so more people would live there. Phair says he and others on council expected most of the units would be rentals. "What has happened to many apartment buildings in the downtown is they've become condos, or they were built as condos," Phair says. Across the city, apartment towers and townhouses were the first rental units to be converted to condos. These days, the owners of humbler walk-ups are dressing up their apartments for the condo market. Near Old Strathcona, apartments that have long been popular with university students are for sale. Typical of the trend in the area, a one-bedroom basement suite was recently for sale at $169,900. The owner of a "cosy" one-bedroom within walking distance of Old Strathcona has been asking $177,900. An up-market, one-bedroom in Garneau has been available for $485,900. City-wide, the Edmonton Real Estate Board reports that the average condo price in January was $233,175, up 74 per cent in 12 months. At CMHC, Goatcher says the rental supply is shrinking even though some condo buyers are investors who then rent their suites. The agency is getting reports of some condo owners boosting rents by up to 50 per cent, to cover the soaring cost of buying the units, he says. "The cost of a 1,000-square-foot, new, two-bedroom condominium concrete highrise is rapidly moving towards $500,000 in this city," Goatcher says. "That's Vancouver prices." CMHC started the year by predicting rent increases of 10 to 15 per cent. Goatcher says January increases have prompted it to raise the forecast for the year to 20 per cent. Monthly rents averaged $727 last year, according to CMHC. The average for a two-bedroom was $808. Jim Gurnett, executive director of the Edmonton Mennonite Centre for Newcomers, says few apartments in that price range are available to would-be renters. "If you don't have $1,000 a month to spend on rent, there's really nothing in this town. Our staff cannot find places for people to live." Even $1,000 a month is too low to encourage apartment construction, the apartment association's Rusnell says. Costs are such that a developer would have to charge about $1,700 a month to build an apartment of the quality renting for less than $900, he says. David Kent, president of Nearctic, the developer of the condo plan for Strath-earn Heights, where Hagensen lives, contends council triggered the condo conversion phenomenon in the 1980s. It set property taxes significantly higher on apartments than on individually owned units. Many apartment landlords changed to a condo ownership structure back then, although they did not sell the units immediately, Kent says. Rev. Christopher New, pastor of the Edmonton Moravian Church in Old Strathcona, says developers and tenants often have a different sense of affordability. New, who is also a leader of the Greater Edmonton Alliance, offers a glimmer of hope that there's a way of reaching an acceptable compromise. The church-based GEA works to get both sides talking. In his experience, developers are open to changing plans in ways that work for tenants. Talking worked at Ascott Garden, an apartment complex in north-side Athlone that is to be replaced by condos. GEA's intervention led to the developer, Lambridge Capital Partners, linking up with Capital Region Housing to provide a home-ownership program for low-income tenants. New hopes GEA can help tenants and Nearctic resolve concerns at the Strathearn project. The signs are promising. Nearctic president Kent says the project will happen in phases over five to eight years, a period in which most tenants would normally leave. He promises that when existing apartments are torn down he will move longer-term tenants, such as Hagensen, at company expense into apartments other tenants vacate. Eventually they'll have first dibs on 88 affordable places among the project's proposed 1,750 units, Kent says. "We're hoping that some of those affordable-housing units are rental units."
Here is a article from Edmonton:
Mondo Condo While Edmonton's population booms, 1,000 apartments a year are lost to condominium conversions Duncan Thorne
The Edmonton Journal Sunday, March 04, 2007
CREDIT: Rick Macwilliam, The Journal, File
In new construction, developers overwhelmingly favour condo projects, like this tower on 104th Street north of Jasper Avenue, over apartments.
EDMONTON - Barbara Hagensen remembers scrambling to find an apartment when she arrived in Edmonton during the boom of the early 1980s. More than 25 years later, the city and province are booming again. But her 1981 search was a cakewalk compared to the task she may now face -- finding a new, affordable apartment in a city that has fewer places to rent now than it did 20 years ago. According to statistics gathered by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), there were about 79,600 rental units in the region in 1987. Last year, there were 5,050 fewer, a drop of 6.3 per cent. Most of the original units were turned into condos. The company that owns Hagensen's current apartment, one of 504 units in Strathearn Heights Apartments, just outside downtown, has given notice it plans to tear the complex down and put up condos. "I am really concerned about my neighbours who are on fixed income," Hagensen says. The problem is unlikely to get better any time soon. "Throughout most of the past 20 years the (rental) universe has been declining because of condo conversions," says Richard Goatcher, senior market analyst at CMHC. "What we've seen is that around 1,000 units a year have been leaving the universe to become condominium properties over the last couple of years." Between 1987 and 2006, the region's population soared by almost 233,000, or 29 per cent, to more than a million people. That obviously boosts demand for rentals. There is a little apartment construction to make up for those lost to conversion. Last year, for instance, work began on about 270 units. Overwhelmingly, developers concentrate on building condos. They built more than 5,600 units in 2006. "Our rental inventory has just gone downhill," says Clarence Rusnell, past president of the Edmonton Apartment Association. The city has earmarked $25 million over five years, under its Cornerstones program, to help developers provide 2,500 affordable units. That's 500 units a year -- not enough to make up for conversions to condos, officials say. Coun. Michael Phair, who handles council's housing responsibilities, says the city can do nothing to stem the conversion flood. Provincial law entitles building owners to convert. The city provided incentives for new housing downtown in the late 1990s so more people would live there. Phair says he and others on council expected most of the units would be rentals. "What has happened to many apartment buildings in the downtown is they've become condos, or they were built as condos," Phair says. Across the city, apartment towers and townhouses were the first rental units to be converted to condos. These days, the owners of humbler walk-ups are dressing up their apartments for the condo market. Near Old Strathcona, apartments that have long been popular with university students are for sale. Typical of the trend in the area, a one-bedroom basement suite was recently for sale at $169,900. The owner of a "cosy" one-bedroom within walking distance of Old Strathcona has been asking $177,900. An up-market, one-bedroom in Garneau has been available for $485,900. City-wide, the Edmonton Real Estate Board reports that the average condo price in January was $233,175, up 74 per cent in 12 months. At CMHC, Goatcher says the rental supply is shrinking even though some condo buyers are investors who then rent their suites. The agency is getting reports of some condo owners boosting rents by up to 50 per cent, to cover the soaring cost of buying the units, he says. "The cost of a 1,000-square-foot, new, two-bedroom condominium concrete highrise is rapidly moving towards $500,000 in this city," Goatcher says. "That's Vancouver prices." CMHC started the year by predicting rent increases of 10 to 15 per cent. Goatcher says January increases have prompted it to raise the forecast for the year to 20 per cent. Monthly rents averaged $727 last year, according to CMHC. The average for a two-bedroom was $808. Jim Gurnett, executive director of the Edmonton Mennonite Centre for Newcomers, says few apartments in that price range are available to would-be renters. "If you don't have $1,000 a month to spend on rent, there's really nothing in this town. Our staff cannot find places for people to live." Even $1,000 a month is too low to encourage apartment construction, the apartment association's Rusnell says. Costs are such that a developer would have to charge about $1,700 a month to build an apartment of the quality renting for less than $900, he says. David Kent, president of Nearctic, the developer of the condo plan for Strath-earn Heights, where Hagensen lives, contends council triggered the condo conversion phenomenon in the 1980s. It set property taxes significantly higher on apartments than on individually owned units. Many apartment landlords changed to a condo ownership structure back then, although they did not sell the units immediately, Kent says. Rev. Christopher New, pastor of the Edmonton Moravian Church in Old Strathcona, says developers and tenants often have a different sense of affordability. New, who is also a leader of the Greater Edmonton Alliance, offers a glimmer of hope that there's a way of reaching an acceptable compromise. The church-based GEA works to get both sides talking. In his experience, developers are open to changing plans in ways that work for tenants. Talking worked at Ascott Garden, an apartment complex in north-side Athlone that is to be replaced by condos. GEA's intervention led to the developer, Lambridge Capital Partners, linking up with Capital Region Housing to provide a home-ownership program for low-income tenants. New hopes GEA can help tenants and Nearctic resolve concerns at the Strathearn project. The signs are promising. Nearctic president Kent says the project will happen in phases over five to eight years, a period in which most tenants would normally leave. He promises that when existing apartments are torn down he will move longer-term tenants, such as Hagensen, at company expense into apartments other tenants vacate. Eventually they'll have first dibs on 88 affordable places among the project's proposed 1,750 units, Kent says. "We're hoping that some of those affordable-housing units are rental units."
Sunday, February 25, 2007
Conspiracy?
Recently both the Vancouver Housing Blog and Calgary Contrarian have announced a pause in service.
Having recently started this blog, it definitely is no where near the popularity of the other housing blogs, but we do get our share of visitors.
So should I be expecting Guido to be knocking on my door to stop this blog? Or maybe I should be expecting a cheque from some bank or real estate agency soon...
All kidding aside, special thanks to VHB and Rob, I have always enjoyed their blogs and view on the market.
In the mean time, I'm sure there will be others continuing their legacy giving us a local perspective in Calgary (Vancouver has several good blogs, links in the VHB). Also, check out http://albertabubble.blogspot.com/
Having recently started this blog, it definitely is no where near the popularity of the other housing blogs, but we do get our share of visitors.
So should I be expecting Guido to be knocking on my door to stop this blog? Or maybe I should be expecting a cheque from some bank or real estate agency soon...
All kidding aside, special thanks to VHB and Rob, I have always enjoyed their blogs and view on the market.
In the mean time, I'm sure there will be others continuing their legacy giving us a local perspective in Calgary (Vancouver has several good blogs, links in the VHB). Also, check out http://albertabubble.blogspot.com/
CMHC Mortgage Consumer Survey
We've seen a lot of theory as to what is causing the collapse of the US Housing Market. Many suggest that it is the re-financing of their homes through HELOCs, the ARMs, and the sub-prime lending practices that have created the mess.
So how do Canadian's treat mortgages? According the the CMHC,
"This study suggests that Canadians are fundamentally cautious when it comes to their mortgage debt," said Pierre Serré, Vice-President, Insurance Product and Business Development. "This is particularly true among young first-time homebuyers."
Take a look at the CMHC Mortgage survey and let's see if there are some similiar patterns...
http://cmhc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2007/upload/Consumers-Cautious-About-Mortgage-Debt-Backgrounder.pdf
So how do Canadian's treat mortgages? According the the CMHC,
"This study suggests that Canadians are fundamentally cautious when it comes to their mortgage debt," said Pierre Serré, Vice-President, Insurance Product and Business Development. "This is particularly true among young first-time homebuyers."
Take a look at the CMHC Mortgage survey and let's see if there are some similiar patterns...
http://cmhc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2007/upload/Consumers-Cautious-About-Mortgage-Debt-Backgrounder.pdf
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Edmonton has earned the dubious reputation as Canada's Murder City
With 36 murders last year and a record 39 killings in 2005, Edmonton has earned the dubious reputation as Canada's Murder City.
Here are some quites from an article in from the Edmonton Journal:
"The biggest threat to this city's future prosperity may well be the crazy, mindless violence -- usually involving young men -- that's rapidly tarnishing Edmonton's reputation as a safe place to live, work and play."
Here are some quites from an article in from the Edmonton Journal:
"The biggest threat to this city's future prosperity may well be the crazy, mindless violence -- usually involving young men -- that's rapidly tarnishing Edmonton's reputation as a safe place to live, work and play."
Monday, February 12, 2007
Condo Conversions: Renters priced out of homes
I noticed a lot more condo conversions happening in Edmonton as evident on MLS. I've seen at least 4-5 mostly in the downtown area. Theses are older mid-rise building converted to "Luxury" condos. I wasn't surprised to see this article in the Calgary Herald:
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=cf1b7017-7087-4ffb-8fb3-2837d62c7b91&k=43552
As prices inflate in Edmonton, we are going to see more and more apartments being converted to condos. Based on the story, landlords must give 6 Months to evict tenants. Based on this, when do we expect this to hit the Edmonton market the way it has in Calgary? How will the government manage affordable housing assuming most of these conversions will affect the affordable housing market?
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=cf1b7017-7087-4ffb-8fb3-2837d62c7b91&k=43552
As prices inflate in Edmonton, we are going to see more and more apartments being converted to condos. Based on the story, landlords must give 6 Months to evict tenants. Based on this, when do we expect this to hit the Edmonton market the way it has in Calgary? How will the government manage affordable housing assuming most of these conversions will affect the affordable housing market?
Friday, February 9, 2007
Edmonton starts reporting versus Calgary
Edmonton's Home starts were up due to multiple starts. Calgary however was down significantly. Let's compare the articles from the Edmonton Journal versus the Calgary Herald.
Edmonton:
http://tinyurl.com/36vpx7
Calgary:
http://tinyurl.com/2ngac9
Both reports point to weather playing a key role in why detached starts are down. In Edmonton, it was an exceptionally warm January in 2006, hence higher starts. In Calgary, they attributed January 2006 on rain.
Based on Febuary forecast to be colder, what should we expect from Febuary starts?
Edmonton:
http://tinyurl.com/36vpx7
Calgary:
http://tinyurl.com/2ngac9
Both reports point to weather playing a key role in why detached starts are down. In Edmonton, it was an exceptionally warm January in 2006, hence higher starts. In Calgary, they attributed January 2006 on rain.
Based on Febuary forecast to be colder, what should we expect from Febuary starts?
Thursday, February 8, 2007
Edmonton Home Prices Surpass Toronto
Based on this report:
http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/amcharts/feb0807.pdf
Edmonton has surpassed Toronto in average home re-sale values. The report also suggests that the Market will continue in this pace.
What are you thoughts...
http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/amcharts/feb0807.pdf
Edmonton has surpassed Toronto in average home re-sale values. The report also suggests that the Market will continue in this pace.
What are you thoughts...
New house prices level off in December
New house prices level off in December
Reuters
Thursday, February 08, 2007
CREDIT: Getty
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said housing starts had risen in January to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 249,300 units from an upwardly revised 212,600 units in December.
OTTAWA -- Average prices of new houses in Canada did not show a monthly increase in December for the first time since June 2000 as superheated markets in western Canada showed signs of cooling down.
Statistics Canada said on Thursday December's new home prices were up 10.7 percent from a year earlier, but unchanged from November.
Tellingly, new housing prices in Calgary, though still up 42.4 percent from a year earlier because of an oil boom, showed a rare month-on-month decline, falling 0.5 percent. New home prices in Edmonton rose by a modest 0.2 percent from November and Vancouver's prices were unchanged.
The Bank of Canada pays close attention to housing prices in setting interest rates, describing fast rising house prices as a key upside risk to its inflation outlook.
Separately, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said housing starts had risen in January to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 249,300 units from an upwardly revised 212,600 units in December.
Urban starts were am adjusted, annualized 216,300 units in January, up 19.2 percent from December. Urban multiples surged 31.4 percent to 124,300 units in January, while singles jumped 5.9 percent to 92,000 units.
Rural starts in January were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 33,000 units.
© Reuters 2007
Reuters
Thursday, February 08, 2007
CREDIT: Getty
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said housing starts had risen in January to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 249,300 units from an upwardly revised 212,600 units in December.
OTTAWA -- Average prices of new houses in Canada did not show a monthly increase in December for the first time since June 2000 as superheated markets in western Canada showed signs of cooling down.
Statistics Canada said on Thursday December's new home prices were up 10.7 percent from a year earlier, but unchanged from November.
Tellingly, new housing prices in Calgary, though still up 42.4 percent from a year earlier because of an oil boom, showed a rare month-on-month decline, falling 0.5 percent. New home prices in Edmonton rose by a modest 0.2 percent from November and Vancouver's prices were unchanged.
The Bank of Canada pays close attention to housing prices in setting interest rates, describing fast rising house prices as a key upside risk to its inflation outlook.
Separately, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said housing starts had risen in January to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 249,300 units from an upwardly revised 212,600 units in December.
Urban starts were am adjusted, annualized 216,300 units in January, up 19.2 percent from December. Urban multiples surged 31.4 percent to 124,300 units in January, while singles jumped 5.9 percent to 92,000 units.
Rural starts in January were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 33,000 units.
© Reuters 2007
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
Some bearish and interesting articles to share...
Builder faces lawsuits over long-simmering dispute
Condominium owners complained for years about unfinished work
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2ljkes
Oilsands bears early
Petro-Canada said it evaluated bids for its stakes in five in-situ oilsands properties and decided they weren't high enough, so it cancelled the sale.
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2sx5ar
Data shows building has peaked
StatsCan report says December retreat ends record year nationwide
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2m8gk4
Condominium owners complained for years about unfinished work
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2ljkes
Oilsands bears early
Petro-Canada said it evaluated bids for its stakes in five in-situ oilsands properties and decided they weren't high enough, so it cancelled the sale.
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2sx5ar
Data shows building has peaked
StatsCan report says December retreat ends record year nationwide
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2m8gk4
Tuesday, February 6, 2007
Alberta's long-term prosperity in jeopardy, study says
Alberta's long-term prosperity in jeopardy, study says
Geoffrey Scotton
Calgary Herald
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Alberta’s overwhelming historical reliance on energy for economic growth, along with expectations government non-renewable resource royalties will decline substantially by 2013, means Alberta is at crossroads that will require longer-term planning to manage the risks, says a new study.The study by University of Calgary energy economist Robert Mansell concludes that strong actions will be required to deal with problems that could derail sustained long-term prosperity, particularly labour shortages, rising costs, water scarcity, greenhouse gas emissions and others.“Without a strong and sustained commitment to meet these challenges, Alberta’s prospects will dim,” said Mansell, the managing director of the U of C’s Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy.Mansell co-wrote the paper with another U of C economist, Ron Schlenker.Mansell and Schlenker warn that there is no other sector in the Alberta economy that could replace the energy sector as the key driver of the province’s prosperity. Between 1974 and 2004, the study found, oil and gas provided more than $1.5 trillion in provincial output, or an average of $45 billion per year.That contribution included $280 million in government revenue, or $8.1 billion a year; $600 billion in labour income, or $18 billion a year, and 12 million person-years of employment, or an annual average of 375,000 person years.gscotton@theherald.canwest.com
Geoffrey Scotton
Calgary Herald
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Alberta’s overwhelming historical reliance on energy for economic growth, along with expectations government non-renewable resource royalties will decline substantially by 2013, means Alberta is at crossroads that will require longer-term planning to manage the risks, says a new study.The study by University of Calgary energy economist Robert Mansell concludes that strong actions will be required to deal with problems that could derail sustained long-term prosperity, particularly labour shortages, rising costs, water scarcity, greenhouse gas emissions and others.“Without a strong and sustained commitment to meet these challenges, Alberta’s prospects will dim,” said Mansell, the managing director of the U of C’s Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy.Mansell co-wrote the paper with another U of C economist, Ron Schlenker.Mansell and Schlenker warn that there is no other sector in the Alberta economy that could replace the energy sector as the key driver of the province’s prosperity. Between 1974 and 2004, the study found, oil and gas provided more than $1.5 trillion in provincial output, or an average of $45 billion per year.That contribution included $280 million in government revenue, or $8.1 billion a year; $600 billion in labour income, or $18 billion a year, and 12 million person-years of employment, or an annual average of 375,000 person years.gscotton@theherald.canwest.com
High prices may depress house demand
High prices may depress house demand
But more workers arriving in Alberta will keep cost of homes climbing, says CMHC
David Finlayson
The Edmonton Journal; with files from Canadian Press
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
EDMONTON - The vibrant job market will continue to attract workers to Edmonton, but the "dark cloud" of escalating prices will temper housing demand over the next two years, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday.
New home starts are expected to decline from 14,970 last year to 13,500 by 2008, and resales will finally pull back this year after six successive records, the agency said.
They will drop from 74,000 last year to 69,500 by 2008, while the average price will rise 13 per cent this year and seven per cent next year after an astronomical 29-per-cent jump in 2006.
"Though the majority of economic indicators point to persistent strength in Alberta's housing markets, strong price gains in the new and resale sectors remain a dark cloud on the horizon," CMHC said.
The outlook is for robust economic growth through 2008, but high housing costs and other provinces' efforts to retain workers will push the record net in-migration of 86,000 last year down to 60,000 by 2008, the report added.
Low vacancy rates and strong demand by people priced out of the single-family home market will keep Edmonton rents rising this year, with the average rent for all units hitting $841 a month by October.
Most multi-family housing starts last year were condominium units, further pressuring the apartment market, CMHC said.
According to Edmonton Real Estate Board figures released Monday, the average single-family home price in Edmonton was $357,325 in January, up 4.5 per cent from December and 51.9 per cent higher than January last year.
Condominium prices rose a more moderate 2.5 per cent to $233,175, but were still 74.3 per cent higher than 2006, while duplex and rowhouse prices actually went down $1,030 last month. "Sales are typically sluggish at the beginning of the year, but realtors have been kept busy in January with increased sales and higher average prices," EREB president Carolyn Pratt said.
January residential sales jumped 45 per cent from December and were up 32 per cent over January 2006. There were 1,554 residential sales last month with 2,043 listings.
The total value of MLS residential sales was $472 million, double the same month last year, with homes spending an average 33 days on the market compared with 30 days in December. Strong commercial and rural sales drove total board sales up 107 per cent over the same month last year.
Economists are divided on whether the house price bubble is ready to burst."Some people do think that those price gains are going to be unwound fairly quickly in the spring time," said Gregor Bush, an economist with the Bank of Montreal.
Others say the global glut in savings and liquidity will keep long-term interest rates low and act as a cushion for the housing market.
"We're seeing a slow deceleration in housing activity, but still with activity at fairly high levels, and we expect that to continue through 2007 as starts come off their very robust pace of 2005 and 2006," Bush said.
"That's still very high by historical standards."
dfinlayson@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2007
But more workers arriving in Alberta will keep cost of homes climbing, says CMHC
David Finlayson
The Edmonton Journal; with files from Canadian Press
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
EDMONTON - The vibrant job market will continue to attract workers to Edmonton, but the "dark cloud" of escalating prices will temper housing demand over the next two years, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday.
New home starts are expected to decline from 14,970 last year to 13,500 by 2008, and resales will finally pull back this year after six successive records, the agency said.
They will drop from 74,000 last year to 69,500 by 2008, while the average price will rise 13 per cent this year and seven per cent next year after an astronomical 29-per-cent jump in 2006.
"Though the majority of economic indicators point to persistent strength in Alberta's housing markets, strong price gains in the new and resale sectors remain a dark cloud on the horizon," CMHC said.
The outlook is for robust economic growth through 2008, but high housing costs and other provinces' efforts to retain workers will push the record net in-migration of 86,000 last year down to 60,000 by 2008, the report added.
Low vacancy rates and strong demand by people priced out of the single-family home market will keep Edmonton rents rising this year, with the average rent for all units hitting $841 a month by October.
Most multi-family housing starts last year were condominium units, further pressuring the apartment market, CMHC said.
According to Edmonton Real Estate Board figures released Monday, the average single-family home price in Edmonton was $357,325 in January, up 4.5 per cent from December and 51.9 per cent higher than January last year.
Condominium prices rose a more moderate 2.5 per cent to $233,175, but were still 74.3 per cent higher than 2006, while duplex and rowhouse prices actually went down $1,030 last month. "Sales are typically sluggish at the beginning of the year, but realtors have been kept busy in January with increased sales and higher average prices," EREB president Carolyn Pratt said.
January residential sales jumped 45 per cent from December and were up 32 per cent over January 2006. There were 1,554 residential sales last month with 2,043 listings.
The total value of MLS residential sales was $472 million, double the same month last year, with homes spending an average 33 days on the market compared with 30 days in December. Strong commercial and rural sales drove total board sales up 107 per cent over the same month last year.
Economists are divided on whether the house price bubble is ready to burst."Some people do think that those price gains are going to be unwound fairly quickly in the spring time," said Gregor Bush, an economist with the Bank of Montreal.
Others say the global glut in savings and liquidity will keep long-term interest rates low and act as a cushion for the housing market.
"We're seeing a slow deceleration in housing activity, but still with activity at fairly high levels, and we expect that to continue through 2007 as starts come off their very robust pace of 2005 and 2006," Bush said.
"That's still very high by historical standards."
dfinlayson@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2007
Thursday, February 1, 2007
Edmonton Condo Market according to Genworth
The Conference Board of Canada and Genworth Financial Canada offers an in-depth analysis of the condominium market for Canada’s six largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs).
"Edmonton’s condominium market has skyrocketed in recent years,
but no drastic correction is anticipated over the 2007 to 2011 period.
Demand is expected to ease from the dizzying heights reached in the
first half of 2006, but it will still remain strong, especially when compared
with historical standards."
You can see the entire report here:
http://www.genworth.ca/mi/eng/downloads/Metro_Condo_Outlook_Winter07.pdf
The report suggests that other than the usual "hot economy", age demographics will play as a huge impact to the growth.
"Demand for condominiums in Edmonton is expected to remain strong over the medium term, not only because of healthy population growth but also because of shifts in the age structure of the population. Edmonton’s population is forecast to increase by an annual average rate of 1.5 per cent from 2007 to 2011. At the same time, the city’s population is aging, the result of the dominance of the baby-boomer cohort. In fact, the share of the 55–74 age cohort is projected to rise from 12 per cent of the population in 1987 to 18 per cent in 2011. As baby boomers enter their retirement years, they are expected to turn to condominiums to take advantage of maintenance-free living and enhanced security, as well as to be closer to amenities."
Anyone seeing this trend?
"Edmonton’s condominium market has skyrocketed in recent years,
but no drastic correction is anticipated over the 2007 to 2011 period.
Demand is expected to ease from the dizzying heights reached in the
first half of 2006, but it will still remain strong, especially when compared
with historical standards."
You can see the entire report here:
http://www.genworth.ca/mi/eng/downloads/Metro_Condo_Outlook_Winter07.pdf
The report suggests that other than the usual "hot economy", age demographics will play as a huge impact to the growth.
"Demand for condominiums in Edmonton is expected to remain strong over the medium term, not only because of healthy population growth but also because of shifts in the age structure of the population. Edmonton’s population is forecast to increase by an annual average rate of 1.5 per cent from 2007 to 2011. At the same time, the city’s population is aging, the result of the dominance of the baby-boomer cohort. In fact, the share of the 55–74 age cohort is projected to rise from 12 per cent of the population in 1987 to 18 per cent in 2011. As baby boomers enter their retirement years, they are expected to turn to condominiums to take advantage of maintenance-free living and enhanced security, as well as to be closer to amenities."
Anyone seeing this trend?
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
In-Migration into Alberta
It is tough to argue that Edmonton's population is growing. Longer lineups, more traffic, and of course the construction of new homes. But how much of is Edmonton growing, and how much of the new home construction are 'real' buyers rather than speculators building spec homes?
The third annual international survey of housing affordability conducted by recently conducted listed Edmonton as 10th, ahead of Calgary (14th) but well behind Regina who was first in affordability.
Are people finally fed up with out rising inflation and housing costs? Should we expect to see more leave the Alberta?
Statscan recently released their net-interprovincial figures. While Alberta recorded a net increase from interprovincial migration of 24,500 in the third quarter, an estimated 22,800 people left Alberta, compared with 16,800 in the same quarter last year. This was the highest third-quarter loss for Alberta since 23,600 in 1989.
The third annual international survey of housing affordability conducted by recently conducted listed Edmonton as 10th, ahead of Calgary (14th) but well behind Regina who was first in affordability.
Are people finally fed up with out rising inflation and housing costs? Should we expect to see more leave the Alberta?
Sunday, January 21, 2007
2007 EREB Housing Forecast News Release
The Annual 2007 EREB Housing Forecast Seminar was recently held. In attendance were representative from the EREB, lending institutions and Edmonton Economic Development.
The article makes comment on affordability. Here is a quote:
"“There is capacity to increase prices in this market especially if we compare Edmonton prices to Vancouver or Toronto,”
My question to the bloggers, is it fair to compare Edmonton affordability to Vancouver or Toronto, or even Calgary?
The full release:
Above average price increases expected in 2007
Edmonton, January 10, 2007: The Edmonton Real Estate Board forecast price increases for all types of resale homes in 2007. President Carolyn Pratt predicted that prices would increase at least one to two percent a month for an annual increase of 15% this year.
“There is enough strength in the Alberta and Edmonton economy to forecast an increase,” said Carolyn Pratt, president of the EREB. “But to predict the percentage increase is difficult.” Pratt said that despite 52% price increases in 2006, Edmonton housing prices are still below Canadian and Alberta average prices. “There is capacity to increase prices in this market especially if we compare Edmonton prices to Vancouver or Toronto,” said Pratt.
She forecast that prices for single family homes, condominiums and other types of housing will have increased 15% by this time next year. Inventory levels will remain low throughout 2007 and the lack of supply and high demand will drive prices up. Like last year, multiple offers and frenzied buying will probably occur during the spring. However, REALTORS® will work closely with buyers and sellers to meet their needs and the market will calm down in late summer and fall.
Condominiums, which have a lower average price than other forms of housing, will be attractive to first time buyers and will increase market share this year. The booming economy will continue to make personal investments in recreational property possible for many buyers and sales are expected to increase. Land, investments and apartment buildings will continue to sell well but sales of commercial properties and businesses that require staff to succeed may be hurt by the lack of employees in Alberta.
Pratt urged anyone entering the real estate market to work closely with a REALTOR® to ensure they get the best value for their property.
The article makes comment on affordability. Here is a quote:
"“There is capacity to increase prices in this market especially if we compare Edmonton prices to Vancouver or Toronto,”
My question to the bloggers, is it fair to compare Edmonton affordability to Vancouver or Toronto, or even Calgary?
The full release:
Above average price increases expected in 2007
Edmonton, January 10, 2007: The Edmonton Real Estate Board forecast price increases for all types of resale homes in 2007. President Carolyn Pratt predicted that prices would increase at least one to two percent a month for an annual increase of 15% this year.
“There is enough strength in the Alberta and Edmonton economy to forecast an increase,” said Carolyn Pratt, president of the EREB. “But to predict the percentage increase is difficult.” Pratt said that despite 52% price increases in 2006, Edmonton housing prices are still below Canadian and Alberta average prices. “There is capacity to increase prices in this market especially if we compare Edmonton prices to Vancouver or Toronto,” said Pratt.
She forecast that prices for single family homes, condominiums and other types of housing will have increased 15% by this time next year. Inventory levels will remain low throughout 2007 and the lack of supply and high demand will drive prices up. Like last year, multiple offers and frenzied buying will probably occur during the spring. However, REALTORS® will work closely with buyers and sellers to meet their needs and the market will calm down in late summer and fall.
Condominiums, which have a lower average price than other forms of housing, will be attractive to first time buyers and will increase market share this year. The booming economy will continue to make personal investments in recreational property possible for many buyers and sales are expected to increase. Land, investments and apartment buildings will continue to sell well but sales of commercial properties and businesses that require staff to succeed may be hurt by the lack of employees in Alberta.
Pratt urged anyone entering the real estate market to work closely with a REALTOR® to ensure they get the best value for their property.
Welcome to the Edmonton Housing Blog
For the some time now Calgary and Vancouver has had a Real Estate Blog with a bipartisan view of the RE market. Edmonton has a blog but is nothing more than a front to sell home by Coldwell Banker.
The aim of this blog is to drive discussion around the Edmonton RE market. I welcome the bulls and the bears, and hope to be a neutral voice in the discussion of our Residential, Commercial and general economy of The City of Champions, Edmonton.
Please feel free to introduce yourself and to provide input into what you would like to see in this blog.
The aim of this blog is to drive discussion around the Edmonton RE market. I welcome the bulls and the bears, and hope to be a neutral voice in the discussion of our Residential, Commercial and general economy of The City of Champions, Edmonton.
Please feel free to introduce yourself and to provide input into what you would like to see in this blog.
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